Bitcoin Catches Its Breath After the Rally – Technical Analysis For May 6, 2025
BULLISH
BTC
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Bitcoin takes a pause after a bullish surge: find our complete analysis and the current technical outlook of BTC.
In Brief
- BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Bitcoin remains in a bullish momentum despite a consolidation phase. The slowdown in momentum and declining volumes call for caution in the short term.
- Bitcoin Technical Levels (BTC): The price is moving between nearby resistances likely to block the rise and strong supports that offer accumulation zones in case of correction.
- Market Sentiment: The sentiment is clearly optimistic, driven by risk appetite and positive institutional flows via Bitcoin spot ETFs.
- Derivatives Analysis (BTC/USDT): Derivatives market indicators show a neutral, stable market, without sharp positioning or notable tension between buyers and sellers.
- Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecasts: The bullish scenario prevails as long as supports hold, but upcoming macroeconomic decisions will be crucial to confirm or reverse the trend.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has consolidated around $94,192 since its surge on April 23, initiating a notable recovery. The weekly change stands at +0.53%, marking a pause after the strong +10% rebound the previous week, indicating a market taking a breather. Weekly volumes have declined to $32 billion (-28%), reflecting a slowdown in activity. Trends remain bullish on all three horizons: long term (SMA 200) with intact momentum, medium term (SMA 50) in a bullish reversal, and short term (SMA 20) confirming a recent bullish trend. However, momentum is declining, calling for short-term caution.
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Spot Price | $94,192 | Bitcoin consolidates around $94,000 since its April 23 surge, after starting a notable recovery. |
| Recent Weekly Changes | +0.53% | Modest increase this week after a +10% jump, indicating a market in a breathing phase. |
| Recent Weekly Volumes | $32B (-28%) | Activity slowdown after the previous week’s bullish momentum. |
| Long-term Trend (SMA 200) | Bullish | Trend intact, supporting a positive long-term bias. |
| Medium-term Trend (SMA 50) | Bullish | Constructing a bullish reversal. |
| Short-term Trend (SMA 20) | Bullish | Confirms a recent and fast bullish dynamic. |
| Momentum | Declining | Bullish momentum but in decline, indicating market slowdown. |
Bitcoin Technical Levels (BTC)
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Resistances | $99,000 – $100,000 / $102,500 | Critical zones, potential distribution thresholds. |
| Support | $91,700 / $82,800 | Major defense levels, probable accumulation zones. |
| Last Daily Breakout | $88,745 | Resistance breached, bullish bias relaunched. |
| Monthly Pivot Point | $88,177 | Reference level for the month’s trend below the price. |
| High Value Area | $96,500 | High volume zone; upper bound of a market balance, beyond which imbalance may emerge. |
| Low Value Area | $67,340 | High volume zone; lower bound of a market balance, beyond which imbalance may appear. |
Bitcoin is trading between key technical levels. Major resistances are between $99,000 and $100,000, extending to $102,500, critical distribution zones. Main supports at $91,700 and $82,800 are defense and probable accumulation zones. The recent break above $88,745 on the daily chart relaunches a bullish bias. The monthly pivot at $88,177, now below price, confirms this positive momentum. In volume, the high value area at $96,500 marks an upper equilibrium boundary, while the low value area at $67,340 represents a threshold for imbalance in case of a pullback.
Market Sentiment
| Market Sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) | Greed | Euphoric sentiment confirming the return of risk appetite. |
| BTC Spot ETF Flows (net flows) | Significant inflows | Institutional flows support the current trend. |
Market sentiment remains marked by greed, confirming a return of risk appetite. Bitcoin spot ETFs record significant net inflows, highlighting institutional support for the ongoing trend.
The current technical analysis was conducted in partnership with Elyfe, and 0xhugzer, investors and educators in the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives Analysis (BTC/USDT)
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Open Interest | Stable | Limited speculative positioning, no strong conviction. |
| CVD | Balanced flow | No directional signal, balanced buying and selling flows. |
| Liquidation | Low, unbiased | Stable liquidations, no sign of capitulation. |
| Funding Rate | Neutral | Funding close to balance, market shows no apparent tension. |
Market sentiment indicators remain neutral and uncommitted. Open interest is stable, reflecting limited speculative positioning and no marked conviction. The CVD shows balanced buying and selling flows, with no clear directional signal. Liquidation levels remain low, unbiased, and without signs of capitulation. Finally, the funding rate is neutral, close to balance, indicating a market without apparent tension between buyers and sellers.
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Seller Liquidation Zones | ≈ $98,000 – $100,900 & $107,200 – $110,551. | Sensitive zones in case of breakout, risk of movement amplification. |
| Buyer Liquidation Zones | ≈ $92,600 / $89,300 – $88,500 & $87,700 – $85,570 / $84,000 – $80,000. | Critical thresholds on the downside, potential flush zones. |
The main liquidation zones for short positions are between $98,000 and $100,900, then between $107,200 and $110,551. Breaching these critical levels could strengthen a bullish acceleration. Conversely, buyer liquidation zones extend from $92,600 to $89,300, then between $88,500 and $87,700, as well as at $85,570, and finally between $84,000 and $80,000, the latter range representing a strategic threshold in case of prolonged correction without buying support.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecasts
Bullish Scenario:
- Conditions: Maintain above $91,700.
- Targets: $97,920 / $99,000 – $100,000 / $102,500 / $107,000 – $109,354 (ATH).
- Potential: approximately +16% increase from current level.
Bearish Scenario:
- Conditions: Break of support at $91,700.
- Targets: $92,600 / $89,300 / $86,400 / $84,000 – $80,000.
- Potential: approximately -15% decrease from current level.
Comment:
The bias currently remains bullish, but macroeconomic indicators (FOMC conference, FED interest rate decisions, etc.) will be decisive in validating this scenario.
Conclusion
Bitcoin maintains a bullish momentum, despite a pause after its recent surge. The momentum is slowing down and activity is declining, calling for short-term caution. Sentiment remains favorable, supported by investor interest, in a stable market. Short-term future variations will depend on the expected economic news. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor price reactions at strategic levels to confirm or adjust current forecasts.
Finally, let us remind you that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and that cryptocurrency prices can rapidly change depending on other more fundamental factors.
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