Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Soars: Is 2020’s Pattern Poised for a Comeback?
GREED
XKI
2024
FTR
BTC
Key Points
- Bitcoin’s $100K target expectation has led the market to ‘extreme greed’ levels, last seen in 2020 before a 50% price pullback.
- Markets are pricing the likelihood of Bitcoin soaring above $100K, with prediction odds standing at 81%.
Bitcoin’s Bitcoin (BTC) $100K target expectation has pushed the market to levels of ‘extreme greed’ last seen in 2020. This sentiment was followed by a significant 50% price pullback.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that BTC’s Fear and Greed Index (FGI) reached a 4.5-year high of 94. This trend is similar to the pattern observed in 2020 when the ‘extreme greed’ level of 94 was reached in November.
Previous Trends and Future Predictions
Following the high greed level in 2020, BTC experienced a 20% decline in February 2021, which extended to a 50% decline by mid-2021. However, before this drawback, BTC saw a 250% increase in three months.
After a 250% decline in the first half of 2021, BTC rallied by 120% to reach a cycle top of $69K in the second half of the year. This trend has led many cycle analysts to predict a likely cool-off in early or late 2025.
At the time of writing, prediction markets are pricing the likelihood of BTC soaring above $100K. According to Kalshi, the odds of BTC hitting $100K or $150K by the end of the year stood at 81% and 10% respectively.
Various Projections
Asset manager VanEck projects that the cryptocurrency could reach a cycle high of $180K, citing the pro-BTC regulatory environment and post-2020 election phase of +10% funding rates.
On the other hand, CryptoQuant’s founder Ki Young Ju projected a more conservative cycle high of $141K and a 2024 target of $112K based on the realized cap valuation. He noted that the market was not yet overheated, as in 2020 and 2021, BTC topped after reaching the upper band of the realized cap.
In summary, the market anticipates BTC to rise above $100K, as evidenced by the high ‘extreme greed’ level. However, any potential top signal may become apparent in early 2025.
