The facts: Bitcoin costs around $74,800, or €67,100, on Monday morning, November 9, and has closed its fifth losing week in a row. On Sunday evening the price on Coinbase slipped to $73,477,
The facts: Bitcoin costs around $74,800, or €67,100, on Monday morning, November 9, and has closed its fifth losing week in a row. On Sunday evening the price on Coinbase slipped to $73,477, the lowest level since August 21. Our assessment follows further down: the 200-day moving average at around $73,170 is now the level that decides whether the correction that began in early October turns into a downtrend.
Anyone checking the bitcoin price this morning sees a quiet night. Between 1 and 6 a.m. German time, BTC moved between $74,388 and $75,500, according to Coinbase hourly candles. The real move came twelve hours earlier, and it has shifted the picture for the new week.
On Sunday between 10 and 11 p.m. German time, bitcoin fell within an hour from just over $75,600 to $73,477. By midnight the price had recovered much of that, and the daily candle closed at $74,754. Ether was hit much harder at the same time: as we reported on Sunday evening, $343 million in long liquidations pushed the Ethereum price to $2,120. Over 24 hours, ETH is down 4.3 percent on Monday morning according to CoinGecko, XRP 4.8 percent, while bitcoin has lost only 1.3 percent.
A liquidation is the forced closure of a leveraged position: when the posted collateral is no longer enough, the exchange sells the position automatically. Such sales arrive in clusters and push the price for minutes below the level buyers and sellers would have found without leverage. That explains why the price came back so quickly afterwards. A low that held for only an hour therefore says more about positioning in the futures market than about demand for actual bitcoin.
The week from November 2 to 8 opened at $78,232 and closed at $74,754, a loss of 4.45 percent. It is the biggest weekly move of the current streak. Each of the four weeks before cost between 2.0 and 3.3 percent. Taken together, bitcoin has lost around 13.6 percent since the weekly close on October 4 at $86,507.
On Sunday we asked here whether the streak would break, and named $78,232 on the upside and $74,722 on the downside as the levels. Since then, the price has not revisited the upper level; the weekly high remained the excursion to $81,131 after the midterms on November 4. The lower level, Friday's low, broke on Sunday evening. The price today is around $1,000 below where it stood on Sunday morning.
The 200-day moving average is the average of the closing prices of the last 200 days. It smooths out daily swings and shows the long-term trend. When the price is above it, the broader trend is considered intact; when it falls below it for a sustained period, many funds and traders read that as a trend break. Because so many market participants watch the same line, it often acts as a support level where buyers step in.
Calculated from Coinbase daily closes, the bitcoin 200-day moving average stands at around $73,170 on Monday. The current price is a good 2.2 percent above it. The shorter averages sit higher: the 100-day moving average at around $77,290 and the 50-day at around $81,740. Bitcoin is therefore trading below both short averages and only just above the long one. This order is typical of a correction that has not yet broken the long-term trend.
A single spike, not a series: Sunday's low at $73,477 held for only an hour.
The last daily close below the 200-day moving average came on August 18, at $64,681, when the line was still at around $69,140. A day later bitcoin closed just above it at $69,300, and on August 20 it jumped to $73,012. Since then the price has closed above the line on 82 consecutive days.
The period before shows why the level matters. From mid-July to mid-August, bitcoin spent weeks between $62,000 and $66,000, seven to twelve percent below the 200-day average. Only the breakout above the line in August set off the rise to almost $87,400 in September. If the price now falls back below it, the entire rally since August would be technically called into question.
One source of the pressure lies in the US. According to the daily breakdown from TFTC on bitcoin ETF flows, investors pulled a net $1.28 billion from US spot ETFs in the first week of November. The distribution stands out: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust lost money on all five trading days, around $1.21 billion in total, $403 million of it on Friday alone. Fidelity's FBTC, by contrast, recorded inflows on four of five days, including $42.8 million on Friday.
An ETF outflow hits the spot market directly: when an investor redeems shares, the fund has to sell the corresponding bitcoin or hand them to a trading counterparty. When money flows in only one direction for several days, the market loses a reliable buyer. Whether the outflows continue this week will become clear once Monday's figures are in.
The crypto fear index from alternative.me stands at 29 points on Monday, in fear territory. On Saturday it was still at 25, which counts as extreme fear. Sentiment has therefore recovered slightly, even though the price has kept falling since. The index currently shows no sign of the panic that often comes before a bottom. It measures volatility, trading volume and search interest, among other things, and ranges from 0 to 100.
On Tuesday, November 10, the US Department of Labor publishes consumer prices for October at 2:30 p.m. German time. The figure helps determine how much room the Federal Reserve sees on interest rates. If inflation comes in higher than expected, Treasury yields and the dollar usually rise, and risk assets such as bitcoin come under pressure. A lower figure usually works the other way.
For the 200-day moving average, this means the market is likely to wait until Tuesday afternoon. The move that decides whether the level holds or breaks will most likely come only after 2:30 p.m. If you trade with leverage, you should know before the release at what price your own position would be liquidated. Sunday evening showed how quickly a $2,000 cushion can disappear.
October consumer prices stay under wraps until 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday, and the market waits until then.
On the upside, the first level is the overnight high at $75,500. Above that comes Sunday's high at around $76,100, and only at $77,290 does the 100-day moving average come into play. These three steps show how much work would be needed to turn the week positive: the week opened at $74,757.
On the downside, the 200-day moving average at around $73,170 comes first. Just below lies the August 21 low at $73,005. A daily close below both levels would be the first below the long average since August 18. The next zone where the price spent more time in August lies only at $69,000 to $70,000.
In euros, bitcoin costs around €67,100 on Monday morning. For investors in Germany, the holding period matters alongside the price: gains on bitcoin held for more than a year are tax-free, while sales within a year count as private disposal transactions. Gains from these stay tax-free up to an exemption limit of €1,000 a year; above that, the entire amount is taxable. Where the reform of the holding period stands is summarised in our overview of the crypto holding period.
A downturn is a good moment to look at your own portfolio. Coins you bought at higher prices over the past twelve months may be in the red. A realised loss within the one-year period can be offset against gains from other private disposal transactions in the same year. A tax tool with FIFO accounting shows which holdings were bought when faster than any spreadsheet of your own; our comparison of crypto tax software gives an overview. Whether a sale makes sense for tax purposes is a question for a tax adviser in each individual case.
In the newsroom's view, a test of the 200-day moving average is more likely than a quick recovery. The evidence: five losing weeks in a row, the price below the 50-day and 100-day averages, a BlackRock ETF with five straight days of outflows, and a lower level from Friday that has already broken. Against this view: Sunday's low held for only an hour, the fear index has recovered, and Fidelity's FBTC keeps attracting money. A single daily close below $73,170 would not yet prove a trend break; two or three closes below it would. This assessment is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and with cryptocurrencies a total loss is possible.
Long-term investors do not need to second-guess Tuesday. A savings plan buys on fixed dates and takes the question of the right entry point out of the equation; which providers offer bitcoin savings plans and from what amount is shown in our comparison of bitcoin savings plans.
(As of November 9, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
