Bitcoin has opened October on a strong note, with BTC climbing back above $87,000 for the first time since September 23. The move extends the recovery that started at the end of September and
Bitcoin has opened October on a strong note, with BTC climbing back above $87,000 for the first time since September 23.
The move extends the recovery that started at the end of September and puts the Bitcoin price back near the upper end of its recent range. Recent market data shows BTC reaching roughly $86,800-$87,000, helped by softer rate-hike expectations and renewed demand across crypto markets. TradingView
But not everyone is convinced the rally has much further to run.
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit says Bitcoin has returned to the area where he wants to build a large short position, with entries between $86,500 and $89,500.
Doctor Profit says his original short entry was around $86,200, and he now sees the current price region as an opportunity to add more exposure.
His plan is to scale into shorts between $86,500 and $89,500 over the coming days and weeks.
That view puts him directly against the current momentum.
$BTC:Bitcoin is back at my short entry of 86,2k and this is the region where I’m starting to build a massive short position for the next weeks. Short orders will be placed between $86,500 and $89,500. The EXACT short entries and size will be shared in premium only! pic.twitter.com/fAtSUuIwq6
— Doctor Profit(@DrProfitCrypto) October 2, 2026
Bitcoin has just had one of its strongest quarters since spot ETFs launched, and institutional demand has remained an important support. Citi also raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 this week, citing stronger crypto activity, ETF inflows and a more favorable macro backdrop. Reuters
Doctor Profit, however, is focused on the possibility that the current rally is becoming stretched and that Bitcoin could face another correction after reaching the upper-$80,000 region.
The second part of his argument is more interesting from a cycle perspective.
Doctor Profit highlighted that this was the first Bitcoin bear market that never closed below Realized Price.
Realized Price represents the average price at which the existing Bitcoin supply last moved onchain. It is often used as a rough estimate of the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders.
In previous major bear markets, BTC spent time below that level.
The chart shows that happening around 2018-2019 and again during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin traded below the Realized Price line and a large portion of holders moved into unrealized loss.
This time, that did not happen.
Read also: Here’s Where Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Could Be Headed in October
If Bitcoin remains above Realized Price, the average holder is still sitting on an unrealized profit.
That is a very different environment from previous deep bear-market resets.
Historically, a move below Realized Price has coincided with periods where investor confidence was badly damaged, weak holders had already sold, and the market was moving through a more complete capitulation phase.
The current cycle avoided that.
That can be interpreted in two very different ways.
The bullish reading is that Bitcoin is structurally stronger than before. ETF demand, corporate buying and a larger institutional investor base may have prevented BTC from falling deeply enough to put the average holder underwater.
The more cautious reading is that the market never received the same full reset seen in previous cycles.
Doctor Profit appears to lean toward the second interpretation.
The Glassnode chart compares Bitcoin price with Realized Price, short-term holder cost basis and long-term holder cost basis.
The red circles around 2019 and 2022 show clear periods where BTC fell below the Realized Price line.
At the far right of the chart, the latest downturn is marked differently.
Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin fell toward the cost-basis region, but the market recovered before producing a sustained close below Realized Price.
That is why Doctor Profit calls this the first bear market to behave this way.
It also means many Bitcoin holders never went through the same level of financial stress that appeared during older cycle bottoms.
Whether that is a sign of maturity or unfinished downside remains open to interpretation.
For now, the market is moving against Doctor Profit’s short thesis.
Bitcoin has reclaimed $87,000, October has started strongly, and recent ETF flows have improved after a weaker summer. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.4 billion during the week ending September 25, their strongest weekly intake since October 2025. Bitcoin Foundation
The immediate question is whether BTC can turn the $87,000-$90,000 region into support.
If it can, the current rally could continue despite Doctor Profit’s positioning.
If Bitcoin starts getting rejected around his $86,500-$89,500 short zone, however, his warning about exhaustion becomes much more relevant.
For now, Bitcoin is showing strength.
But the unusual Realized Price behavior means this cycle still does not look exactly like the ones that came before it.
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The post Bitcoin Price Tops $87K, But Analyst Warns the Rally Could Be Nearing Exhaustion appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
