Bitcoin’s (BTC USD) $77K Dip Was A One-Time Event – Analysts

Bitcoin (BTC USD) sits at 82,582.99, up by 0.30% intraday, as of March 30th, 2025, over a week since the Fed announced it was slowing its Quantitative Tightening (QT) measure.

Over the past seven days, it is down by 2.8.6%. This suggests that investors have an optimistic outlook about Bitcoin’s performance amid prevailing macroeconomic conditions.

However, trade war fears and geo-political tremors across multiple continents remain, and are likely to reflect on the crypto market.

Bitcoin price was at $85,167 on March 20, 2025, recovering from a steep drop to $77,000 just ten days before the Fed’s announcement.

$77k was its lowest point since November, according to analysts. The plunge had rattled traders, but a Federal Reserve policy shift has sparked fresh optimism.

On March 19, the Fed announced plans to ease quantitative tightening, cutting its monthly Treasury sales from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April.

Analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, now see $77,000 as Bitcoin’s bottom.

QT Slows Down: A Liquidity Lifeline

The Fed’s QT program, designed to shrink the money supply by selling assets, has been a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin.

That changed on March 19, 2025, when the Fed signaled a slowdown. Hayes took to X on March 20, declaring QT “basically over.”

His reasoning? Less asset dumping means more liquidity, easing pressure on markets.

He tweeted, “Was BTC $77k the bottom, prob,” pointing to Bitcoin’s dip to $77,000 on March 10—down 22% from its January peak of $109,000, per CoinMarketCap.

The Fed’s move could stabilize conditions for crypto, Hayes argued, though he noted bigger catalysts like a Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption or quantitative easing (QE) restart are still needed.

As of writing this report, the Fed is expecting not more than two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year. However, per Reuters, three rate cuts might be lined up in 2025.

Inflation data, employment data, and tariff-related developments will significantly affect the Fed’s decisions.

Bitcoin Price Bounce

Bitcoin’s (BTC USD) price reflected the shift. BTC was up 2.59% over the seven days preceding the announcement, climbing to $85,167. That’s a rebound from the $77,000 low on March 10.

Analysts see the Fed’s QT pivot as the trigger. Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts echoed Hayes on March 19, posting on X that “QT is effectively dead.”

He tied the calmer treasury volatility and a weaker U.S. dollar earlier this month to improved liquidity—good news for Bitcoin.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index backs this up, rising to 49 (Neutral) on March 20 after weeks in “Fear” territory below 32 since February 26. Sentiment is warming, and the data shows it.

Industry Voices of Optimism: What Next for Bitcoin Price?

The Fed’s announcement sparked reactions across crypto’s top minds. Axie Infinity co-founder Jeff “JiHo” Zirlin posted on X on March 19, calling the QT slowdown “great for both crypto and equity markets.”

He argued the Fed now has room to loosen policy, supporting businesses and markets.

Bitcoin venture capitalist Mark Moss went further on March 20, tweeting, “the dam is going to break” with QT fading.

These voices align with Hayes and Coutts, seeing the March 19 decision as a turning point.

This isn’t just about Bitcoin. The Fed’s QT rollback fits a pattern. During the COVID-19 crisis, the temporary SLR exemption let banks ignore U.S. Treasuries in leverage calculations, boosting liquidity.

Hayes referenced this on March 20, hinting at its return as a bullish signal. QE, the Fed’s old stimulus trick, also looms as a potential game-changer.

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