BTC, ETH Mark Worst Q1 Since 2020 As Whales Block $90K Breakout

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have ended the first quarter of 2025 in the red, with market sentiment weakened by macro uncertainty and visible whale resistance near key price levels.

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal had noted that a “vertical swing up” before the quarter’s end on March 31st was unlikely. As expected, there was no unexpected surge, let alone a spark.

He added that the crypto market will remain “flying a little blind” until mid-April, when more clarity is expected on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Ethereum, which traded at $1,852.25 at press time, has dropped 37.98% so far in Q1, 2025, according to CoinGlass data. That marks its worst Q1 since 2018, when ETH fell 46.61%.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, was down 6.49% over the quarter, its weakest Q1 since the 10.83% drop in 2020.

Whales Short Bitcoin at $88K as Resistance Builds

Analytics platform Alphractal reported that whales have been shorting Bitcoin near $88,000.

Bitcoin was trading at $83,129.15, up 0.13% at the time of writing.

The firm noted a “sharp reversal” in its Whale Position Sentiment metric, flagging large $1 million+ trades on multiple exchanges. The behavior typically precedes a price drop, it warned.

“Whales have closed their long positions,” Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson stated in a recent X post.

CryptoQuant echoed this view, highlighting that 8 out of 10 on-chain metrics are currently flashing bearish.

BTC needs to close above $90,000 to maintain bullish momentum.

Failing that, the $84,000 to $85,000 zone remains a key cost-basis liquidity area.

Falling below this range could prompt selling, according to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk.

ETH/BTC Ratio Hits 2020 Levels as Ether Lags

The ETH/BTC ratio fell to 0.022, its lowest since May 2020, according to TradingView data.

This reflects a weakening relative strength for Ether against Bitcoin, despite ETH historically outperforming BTC in the first quarter.

CoinGlass shows Ethereum has averaged a 78.23% Q1 return since 2017. Bitcoin has returned 51.62% in Q1 since 2013. Those trends broke this year amid unexpected macro pressures.

Market optimism that followed Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000 after Trump’s November 2024 election win faded by early February, as new tariffs and interest rate concerns hit risk sentiment.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflected fear at 24 on April 1st.

Analysts Split on April and Q2 Outlook

Swyftx’s Hundal expects clarity to emerge only by mid-April. Until then, markets are reacting cautiously to mixed macroeconomic data.

Despite the near-term weakness, some still project new highs later in 2025.

Timothy Peterson, economist at Cane Island, said Bitcoin has a 75% chance of reaching new all-time highs in the next nine months.

He also claimed there’s a 50% chance BTC gains 50%+ in the short term.

Peterson’s model relies on Bitcoin’s 10-year seasonal performance, which shows April and October average monthly gains of 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively.

Meanwhile, crypto influencer Colin Talks Crypto expects Bitcoin’s “next major blast-off” around April 30.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten put the odds of a new ATH before the end of June at over 50%.

Accumulation Continues Despite Bearish Signs

Not all metrics are bearish. According to Santiment, wallets holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation since Bitcoin’s local bottom.

IntoTheBlock data also showed $220 Million in BTC net outflows from exchanges over the last 24 hours, rising to $424 Million from March 18–24.

Ali, a crypto analyst with over 800,000 followers on X, noted that miners have not shown signs of selling during the pullback, suggesting underlying confidence.

Still, with bearish on-chain signals and whale shorts stacking between $88,000 and $90,000, bulls need a clean breakout above $90,000 to reignite momentum.

Bitcoin and Ethereum now face the possibility of their worst Q1 close in years.

With whale resistance firming at key levels, and macro clarity not expected until mid-April, markets may remain in limbo as Q2 approaches.

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