Citigroup has cut its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ether for the second time this year, blaming a sharp reversal in ETF demand and a lack of progress on US digital asset legislation
Citigroup has cut its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ether for the second time this year, blaming a sharp reversal in ETF demand and a lack of progress on US digital asset legislation.
The bank lowered its Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 and trimmed its Ether projection from $3,175 to $2,240.This marks the second downward revision from Citi in 2026 alone. The bank had already cut its Bitcoin target from $143,000 to $112,000 back in March, citing concerns around stalled regulatory progress on the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, meaning the bank has now cut its forecast twice within four months.
The biggest change in Citi's model is its view on ETF flows. The bank has cut its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption to zero, down from $10 billion.US spot Bitcoin ETF demand has weakened sharply in recent months, removing what has been the crypto market's biggest source of institutional buying since the funds launched in 2024. The ETFs recorded a record $4 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, after a 13-day redemption streak pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory for the first time.
The downgrade marks a sharp reversal from Citi's previous outlook, which assumed passage of US digital asset market structure legislation would spur adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that timeline has slipped, leaving the market without a meaningful catalyst.Citi flagged delays around the CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill many investors expected to unlock broader institutional adoption. The legislation has cleared major procedural steps but remains stuck as lawmakers debate conflict-of-interest provisions, with ethics questions tied to President Donald Trump's crypto business interests slowing its path.
$BTC is trading near $60,000, roughly half its October 2025 peak. The crypto has lost more than half its value since reaching $126,200 in October last year.$ETH sits near $1,600. Ether has slid to its weakest reading since April 2025.
In a bear scenario built on a US recession and continued ETF redemptions, the bank sees Bitcoin sliding to $53,000 and Ether to $1,094. Citi's base case still points higher from current levels, but the bank is clear that flows, not fundamentals, are in the driving seat for now.
Sources:CoinDesk: Citi Slashes 12-Month Bitcoin, Ether Targets as ETF Flows Dry UpBanklessTimes: Citi Cuts Bitcoin, Ether Price Targets as Crypto ETF Inflows Dry UpBitcoin Magazine: Citi Slashes Bitcoin Target to $82,000 as ETF Money Heads for the Exits
