Washington spent much of 2026 promising the crypto industry a clear rulebook. On Sept. 15, the Senate fell short of passing one. The Clarity Act is a market-structure bill backed by President
Washington spent much of 2026 promising the crypto industry a clear rulebook. On Sept. 15, the Senate fell short of passing one.
The Clarity Act is a market-structure bill backed by President Donald Trump and the digital asset industry. It fell 10 votes short of the 60 it needed to advance.
The bill would have split crypto oversight between two regulators: the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which polices securities markets, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees commodities and derivatives.
Congress is now heading into recess before the November midterms, so the bill is effectively shelved.
In a note released Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said federal regulators are filling part of that gap. How long their work lasts is less certain.
The analysts expect the bill to stall this year and possibly return in 2027.
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The SEC introduced a five-year “Innovation Exemption” for tokenized stocks, which are digital versions of company shares recorded on a blockchain.
Tokenized shares must carry the same financial and voting rights as the originals. Synthetic tokens that only track a stock’s price don’t qualify, and trading platforms face limits.
The analysts said those limits weighed on sentiment for application tokens such as Ether, which power blockchain networks. Flows into exchange-traded funds and futures positioning both weakened, they said.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the federal regulator for national banks, has granted trust charters to a growing number of stablecoin issuers and digital asset firms.
Stablecoins are crypto tokens pegged to a currency such as the U.S. dollar. The charters bring custody, reserve management and token issuance under federal oversight.
A community bankers’ group has sued the OCC over some of those approvals. The analysts said charters can be challenged but are hard to unwind once granted.
The CFTC is exploring leveraged crypto trading on regulated U.S. platforms, though the analysts don’t expect it to advance before 2027.
Bringing that activity onshore could deepen liquidity and improve price discovery, they said. Over time, that could favor regulated venues that institutions prefer.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which sets U.S. accounting rules, is weighing whether some stablecoins can count as cash equivalents on company balance sheets.
Public comments are due Nov. 19. The analysts said adoption would support uses beyond trading, such as payments and managing corporate cash.
A regulator’s decision does not carry the weight of a law. The analysts warned that this patchwork could be reversed within two years if a Democrat wins the White House.
Only legislation from Congress would make the framework durable, they said.
Even so, the analysts described crypto market sentiment as relatively constructive.
The report comes days after JPMorgan Asset Management added Bitcoin to its long-term return forecasts for the first time. It projects returns of about 10% a year.
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