Michael Oliver believes gold and silver may be close to entering a far more aggressive phase, and one chart stands at the center of his argument. SilverTrade recently drew attention to Oliver
Michael Oliver believes gold and silver may be close to entering a far more aggressive phase, and one chart stands at the center of his argument.
SilverTrade recently drew attention to Oliver’s latest analysis, pointing to the relationship between precious metals miners and gold. The ratio has spent roughly 13 years trapped at historically depressed levels, but Oliver believes that range is now breaking.
That development matters because miners have historically become much stronger relative to gold during powerful precious metals advances. Oliver explained the setup during an August 25 interview with Danny on CapitalCosm, where he also discussed institutional demand, silver’s valuation, government debt, commodities, and why the next stage could look very different from previous gold and silver cycles.
Oliver’s main technical case starts with gold and silver mining companies.
— SilverTrade (@silvertrade) August 28, 2026
Michael Oliver Warns This is Your LAST Signal Before GOLD & SILVER Prices Blow THROUGH THE ROOF
Michael Oliver just sat down & pointed at the chart that stackers have been waiting years to see break:
Miners versus gold.
The valuation box that has been humiliating…
During the CapitalCosm interview, he examined GDX, the major gold mining ETF that also includes some silver miners. His analysis compares the price of GDX with the price of an ounce of gold.
Oliver said that relationship stood near 6% to 6.5% around the early years of GDX. The ratio later collapsed as miners performed much worse than gold, eventually falling toward extremely low levels.
A longer historical comparison comes from the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, known as XAU.
Oliver explained that XAU historically traded between roughly 18% and 35% of the price of gold. The middle of that range stood around 25% to 27% for many years.
That relationship broke down after 2008.
XAU eventually dropped toward roughly 4% of gold’s price. Oliver said the ratio then spent about 13 years inside a depressed range.
The key levels from his analysis are:
SilverTrade described this development as the possible “last signal” before a much stronger move in gold and silver prices.
Oliver believes the next important resistance area could be near 18%, which represents the lower boundary of the much older historical range.
That would roughly double the valuation of miners relative to gold from levels near 9%.
A simple 2X calculation does not capture Oliver’s full argument, however.
Gold does not necessarily remain flat during such a move. Oliver expects gold prices could also climb during the same period, meaning miners could gain against gold at the same time that gold itself rises against the dollar.
Danny raised that point during the CapitalCosm interview, and Oliver agreed.
Oliver said the result could eventually look more like a 3X or 5X move in mining stock prices instead of only a doubling.
His confidence also comes from previous behavior inside the miner to gold ratio. Periods when miners improved against gold generally occurred during periods when both miners and precious metals prices were rising.
Oliver therefore views the ratio breakout as more than a story about mining stocks outperforming bullion. He sees it as a possible sign of stronger conditions across the precious metals market.
Oliver also pointed to Newmont and Wheaton Precious Metals as evidence that larger investors may already be entering the sector.
Newmont is one of the largest gold mining companies. Wheaton Precious Metals provides major exposure to gold and silver through its streaming business.
Oliver noted that Newmont had recently reached a new closing high. Wheaton Precious Metals had also returned close to its previous high.
Gold and silver had not reached their respective highs at that point. Oliver believes that difference matters.
Large asset managers usually need highly liquid companies when entering a smaller sector. Major mining companies such as Newmont and Wheaton can therefore become early destinations for institutional capital before smaller miners receive similar demand.
Danny also examined institutional ownership across several precious metals funds during the interview.
Some of the main observations included:
Oliver believes silver miners could eventually outperform gold miners because his broader thesis expects silver itself to outperform gold.
Silver’s valuation against gold forms another major part of Oliver’s warning. Oliver compared silver’s price with gold across previous market peaks.
Silver traded around $50 in 1980. That represented roughly 6.5% of the price of gold at the time. Silver returned to approximately $50 in 2011, but the ratio had dropped to around 3.1%.
Oliver said silver currently represents only about 1.6% of gold’s price. That comparison looks like this:
PeriodSilver PriceSilver Relative To Gold1980About $50About 6.5%2011About $50About 3.1%Current Ratio Cited By OliverHigher Nominal PriceAbout 1.6%Oliver considers that gap especially important because gold has risen several times above its 1980 price, yet silver remains much closer to its old nominal high.
His technical work also shows that silver already broke above a long established range against gold around November. Oliver believes that breakout may have been an early clue that silver is preparing to close part of the valuation gap.
Oliver’s most aggressive claim came when the discussion turned toward possible silver prices. His comparison went beyond gold. Copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and other industrial commodities trade several times above levels common around 1980. Copper provides one clear example from his analysis.
Oliver said copper averaged close to $1 across long stretches of the 1980s and 1990s. The metal now trades several times higher. Gold has also risen more than 4 times above its 1980 peak area.
Silver remains much closer to its old price. Oliver believes silver therefore looks unusually cheap when measured against several benchmarks.
His case for a much higher silver price rests on several comparisons:
Different valuation methods produce different outcomes, but Oliver said comparisons involving copper, monetary expansion, and other historical relationships can produce figures near $500.
Oliver did not present $500 as a guaranteed silver price target. He explained that markets can overshoot when correcting an extended period of underpricing.
His view is that $500 would not surprise him if silver rapidly closes its valuation gap with gold and other assets.
Oliver also challenged the idea that Federal Reserve interest rate decisions provide the main explanation for gold price direction.
His argument focuses more heavily on monetary expansion and declining purchasing power across major currencies.
Oliver used housing costs as a simple example. A home that once cost around $4,500 may later have cost $45,000 and could now cost roughly $450,000.
He sees that progression as evidence of how much purchasing power monetary units have lost over generations.
Gold has responded to that deterioration, Oliver argues. Historical interest rate behavior also supports part of his case. Gold climbed from roughly $103 in 1976 to $850 by 1980 even though interest rates and longer term bond yields were rising during that period.
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Oliver therefore does not believe higher rates automatically create weaker gold prices.
His argument centers instead on monetary expansion across the United States, Japan, Europe, and other major economies.
Government debt plays an important role in Oliver’s larger thesis.
Traditional investment portfolios have often depended on stocks and bonds. Oliver believes both areas could become less attractive if equity markets weaken and government borrowing problems become more difficult.
A declining stock market could make investors search for alternatives. Government debt may provide less comfort if concerns around deficits, interest costs, and borrowing continue.
Precious metals could become one destination under that scenario. Oliver believes mining stocks could receive a large part of those flows because many investors prefer buying listed companies instead of storing bullion or trading futures contracts.
Some large miners also pay dividends, which can make them easier to fit inside conventional portfolios. Oliver believes institutional activity in major miners may already represent the early stage of that process. Smaller companies and junior miners could become more active later if wider participation develops.
Oliver does not limit his thesis to precious metals.
The CapitalCosm discussion also covered the broader commodity market.
Oliver noted that the Bloomberg Commodity Index previously traded near 235 during 2008. The index was around 140 during the interview, far below that older peak.
His analysis therefore considers commodities cheap relative to assets such as gold and the S&P 500.
Several areas came up during the discussion:
Oliver still gives gold and silver miners a special place in his analysis because their relative valuations remain exceptionally low compared with historical levels.
Oil became another example of relative valuation during the interview. Oliver noted that crude oil previously spent considerable periods around $130 to $140.
Prices around $80 to $85 therefore do not necessarily represent an expensive market when measured against historical levels. The comparison becomes even more interesting when oil is measured against gold, the S&P 500, or the wider commodity complex.
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Oliver said his technical indicators turned positive on West Texas Intermediate earlier in 2026 when prices were near $55 to $65. Oil later moved above $100 during geopolitical tension before falling toward the high $60 area.
Oliver argued that the earlier spike came partly from investors responding to geopolitical developments instead of the underlying commodity trend.
His longer term oil case rests on relative valuation and the possibility that capital increasingly moves toward tangible assets. Oliver’s warning ultimately comes back to one relationship.
Gold and silver miners spent about 13 years trapped at very low valuations compared with gold. That range now appears to be breaking. Major miners are already performing strongly. Institutional ownership across several precious metals funds has increased. Silver has also broken higher against gold after years of weak relative performance.
Oliver believes those developments could represent the early stages of a much stronger phase for gold, silver, and mining stocks.
XAU (spot gold traded against the US dollar) can be a good investment or trading asset for portfolio diversification and hedging against inflation or economic uncertainty, but it carries market risks and produces no regular income.
Can silver hit $500?Yes, silver can theoretically hit $500 per ounce, but mainstream analysts view it as an extreme scenario requiring a massive global monetary shift.
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The post Michael Oliver Reveals the 13-Year Signal That Could Come Before Gold and Silver Prices Explode appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
