Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows stall, but analysts say CME BTC basis hints at price reversal

Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a swift 4.40% rally after forming a new range at $93,321 on Feb. 18. However, the crypto asset continued to trend down on a high-time frame (HTF) chart, oscillating with a descending channel pattern. 

With the current range high at $102,000 and the range low at $91,000, Bitcoin's market structure lacks a sense of urgency. This sluggish momentum has gradually impacted its onchain and institutional demand.

Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows drop

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, mentioned in an X post that the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is currently halved in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The analyst pointed out that the current net inflow is around 41,000 BTC, while it was around 100,000 BTC in 2024. 

However, when measured in dollar terms, the difference in demand was minimal, with ETF inflows totaling approximately $4.8 billion in 2024 compared to $4.3 billion in 2025.

From an institutional trading perspective, Vetle Lunde, research analyst at K33 research, pointed out that the 1-month basis of CME Bitcoin futures has dropped to lows last witnessed in September 2023, i.e., before the beginning of this bull market. 

The 1-month basis measures the percentage difference between the front-month futures price and Bitcoin’s spot price. It indicates whether futures trade at a premium (contango) or discount (backwardation) relative to the spot market. Whenever the 1-month basis is positive, it indicates strong demand for long exposure, implying bullish sentiment, and negative data highlights a bearish outlook and short-term liquidity concerns. 

While the current 1-month basis is positive, Lunde said that “risk-averse” conditions are currently evident. The analyst added,

“Trading volumes are at pre-election levels, there are no material ETF flows, and volatility is gone.”

Interestingly, Bitcoin CME’s annualized basis also dropped to a 4-month low, which could be a potential bullish reversal signal. Since March 2024, whenever the annualized basis had dropped down to the 6% range, Bitcoin has exhibited a higher time frame (HTF) bottom within two weeks. On Feb. 19, the annualized basis was 6.22%, thus opening an interesting plot to observe over the next couple of weeks. 

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Bitcoin price “squeezing tighter” under $98K

Low volatility and sideways price action have been Bitcoin’s flavor of the month, with the crypto asset struggling to assert a directional bias. While the markets appear bearish, BTC has yet to close a daily candle under $92,000 since Nov. 19. 

Jackis, a crypto trader, said that Bitcoin’s price over the past 15 days has been as tightly compressed as August 2023. With the overall range between $106,000 and $91,500, the trader believed that it is essential for the crypto asset to show its hand before making any investment moves. 

Jelle, a crypto investor, also shared a similar sentiment, indicating BTC’s struggle to break above $97,000. With the price slowly grinding near the range, the investor highlighted that the squeeze is getting “tighter and tighter,” and sooner or later, a breakout will unfold in the charts. 

From a fundamental perspective, a daily close above $98,000 might be the first sign of recovery. As observed, BTC has failed to close above the aforementioned range since Feb. 4, with its price getting curbed under the resistance. Thus, any significant price momentum above $98,000 might get the ball rolling for the bulls and trigger a fresh injection of volatility in the charts. 

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.