Stellar price is crashing: how low can XLM fall?

Stellar price suffered a harsh reversal as recent momentum faded, and a sea of red clouded the crypto industry.

Stellar Lumens (XLM) crashed to a low of $0.3570, its lowest level since Nov. 23, and about 45% below its highest point this year.

This decline is part of the ongoing meltdown in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), which often sets the tone for the broader crypto industry, dropped to $97,700, significantly lower than last week’s high of $104,000. 

Stellar’s retreat also coincided with Ripple (XRP) dropping to a key support level of $2, down 25% from its all-time high. XLM often experiences larger swings than XRP. For instance, XLM surged by over 500% in November, compared to XRP’s 450% rise.

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Despite the current downturn, some potential bullish catalysts could push Stellar’s price higher in the long term. First, there are rising odds that Donald Trump’s administration may be more favorable to the crypto industry. 

In a statement this week, Eric Trump noted that his father was committed to make the US the crypto capital of the world. He has already nominated Paul Atkins, a well-regarded regulator, to be the next SEC chair.

Second, there is growing anticipation of a spot XLM ETF in 2025, which could attract significant inflows from institutional investors. Additionally, more developers are adopting the Stellar blockchain, with the total value locked in its decentralized finance network rising to $46 million. Stellar’s stablecoin market cap currently stands at over $146 million.

Stellar price analysis

The daily chart indicates that XLM’s price has suffered a harsh reversal, as previously predicted. This pullback followed the formation of a near double-top pattern at $0.6040, a well-known bearish market signal. 

Stellar’s price has fallen below the neckline at $0.4168 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

This decline is partly attributed to the coin entering the markdown phase of the Wyckoff Method. According to Wyckoff’s theory, assets go through four phases: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. The markdown phase is characterized by supply outpacing demand.

If this trend continues, the next potential level to watch is $0.2900, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement point. This target also aligns with the double-top measurement. 

In the long term, however, there are odds that the Stellar price will bounce back and reach $1. This view will become valid if it rises above the year-to-date high at $0.6355.

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