The Crypto Godfather Trump: 2025 Forecast
This report was written by Tiger Research, analyzing the implications of Trump's return to presidency in 2025 on cryptocurrency markets and examining five key trends: institutional participation, stablecoin adoption, RWA tokenization, AI-blockchain integration, and DePIN expansion.
TL;DR
- Despite initial market disappointment over the Trump administration's silence on cryptocurrency policy, expectations remain that the focus will shift toward Bitcoin as a strategic asset and strengthening stablecoins to maintain U.S. dollar dominance.
- Five key cryptocurrency trends are projected for 2025: increased institutional participation, rapid stablecoin adoption, growth in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, AI-blockchain integration, and the expansion of decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN).
- While the cryptocurrency market has evolved through multiple phases (ICO, DeFi, NFT, P2E), few projects have demonstrated lasting value. This suggests the need for measured expectations rather than excessive optimism regarding the Trump administration's cryptocurrency policies.
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1. Introduction
The cryptocurrency market is entering a pivotal phase in 2025. As the Trump 2.0 era begins, companies are seeing stronger institutional adoption and a shift toward in-depth blockchain implementation, moving beyond surface-level marketing initiatives. The crystallization of previously ambiguous regulatory frameworks promises to usher in a new chapter for the industry.
Despite these positive indicators, the market is experiencing unprecedented volatility. Traditional market narratives are rapidly dissolving as new projects reshape the landscape, creating a new order. This dynamic environment has left many investors struggling to adjust their investment strategies.
This report examines the market implications of the Trump 2.0 era and outlines key developments and opportunities in the 2025 cryptocurrency market, drawing on insights from more than 300 leading Web3 institutions.
2. What is the Trump 2.0 era?
Source: TradingView
The Trump administration's influence on cryptocurrency markets is already evident. $TRUMP has surpassed $15.1 billion in market capitalization, securing a position among the top 15 cryptocurrencies. Melania Trump's memecoin achieved similar success, reaching $2.2 billion in value within its first day. Additionally, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the Trump family's previously stagnant DeFi project, successfully raised $30 million. These developments reflect market optimism about the Trump administration.
2.1. Bitcoin as a strategic asset
Donald Trump speaks at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference July 27, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn. Source: AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, File
However, the absence of cryptocurrency policy announcements during the inauguration deviated from market expectations. Last year, Trump declared his intention to stockpile Bitcoin as a national strategic asset. He also promised to dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and establish a new cryptocurrency committee. Despite Gensler's resignation, the market was disappointed by the continued lack of concrete policy direction.
Three scenarios regarding Bitcoin's strategic asset status are gaining attention. The first maintains the status quo due to opposition from key figures like Fed Chairman Powell. The second proposes designating the government's 207,000 Bitcoin as strategic reserves. This scenario follows Senator Lummis's suggestion to purchase additional Bitcoin annually, targeting 1 million Bitcoin over five years. The third scenario involves creating a portfolio of various U.S.-centric cryptocurrencies. However, this appears unlikely due to high volatility and the challenges of gaining approval even for Bitcoin alone.
2.2. Strengthening dollar-backed stablecoins
Source: Router
The Trump administration is likely to prioritize strengthening stablecoins over implementing CBDCs. This stance is supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement that "there is no need for CBDC implementation." Rather than a mere campaign promise, this approach is interpreted as a long-term strategy to reinforce dollar dominance.
In the aftermath of the Ukraine war, Russia and China have shown movements to break away from the dollar-centered financial system. After the U.S. froze trillions of dollars in Russian foreign assets following the war's outbreak, Russia concluded that keeping the dollar as a foreign exchange reserve was no longer secure. China, recognizing they could face a similar situation, began reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings. These shifts have contributed to weakening dollar demand in global financial markets.
Given these circumstances, stablecoins are emerging as a tool to generate new demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Stablecoins provide stability by maintaining fixed value against fiat currencies, requiring collateral assets to do so. These coins typically use U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral, effectively becoming large-scale purchasers. Given the recent weak demand at Treasury auctions, these buyers come at a crucial time.
Moreover, stablecoins serve as essential infrastructure in the cryptocurrency market. Most cryptocurrency transactions and services operate based on stablecoins. They also facilitate cross-border transactions with faster processing times and lower fees, already showing practical applications in international trade.
With active support in expanding both the cryptocurrency market and real-world use cases, stablecoin adoption is expected to grow. This will increase reinvestment in Treasury bonds used as collateral. Such development not only helps the U.S. lower Treasury yield and reduce fiscal burden, but also provides a foundation for maintaining the dollar's status as the global standard currency in the digital economy.
The role of stablecoins is parallel to the historical petrodollar system. After the 1970s oil crisis, the United States established agreements with oil-producing nations to make the dollar the standard currency for oil transactions. This led to an explosive increase in dollar demand. Oil-producing countries then reinvested their dollar revenues into U.S. Treasuries and financial assets, supporting the American economy.
The Trump administration appears to view stablecoins not merely as a political tool, but as a strategic instrument similar to the petrodollar - one that can secure America's leadership in the digital economy.
3. Major institutions' outlook for 2025
As we enter the Trump 2.0 era in 2025, what are major Web3 institutions forecasting? The central focus is on "accelerating institutional market entry." With Republicans controlling both the legislative and executive branches, clear and swift policy implementation is expected. This is likely to strengthen collaboration and partnerships with traditional enterprises.
Based on Insights4VC's report, Tiger Research analyzed over 300 forecasts to predict key trends in the Web3 market. More detailed information can be found in Insights4VC's comprehensive 2025 cryptocurrency market outlook report.
2025 Crypto Market Predictions Report by insights4vc
3.1. Accelerating institutional entry
Institutional entry into the cryptocurrency market is rapidly accelerating following Bitcoin ETF approvals. ETFs have become particularly attractive to institutional investors due to their regulatory compliance and ease of risk management. This has led to multifaceted market adoption, with corporations and governments increasing their Bitcoin holdings and financial institutions launching digital asset custody services.
Source: coinglass
According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) have reached $110 billion and could surpass Gold ETF holdings ($128 billion). VanEck projects that under the Trump administration, the U.S. share of Bitcoin mining could increase from 28% to 35%. Additionally, a predicted 43% increase in corporate Bitcoin holdings supports the likelihood of accelerated institutional adoption.
U.S. regulatory changes are essential for these developments to materialize. As regulations become more defined, traditional financial institutions are likely to acquire existing cryptocurrency services. This suggests that the boundaries between cryptocurrency and traditional financial systems will continue to blur, and ultimately merge into a single industry.
3.2. The explosive growth of the stablecoin market
Stablecoins are rapidly emerging as an effective alternative to traditional financial systems for remittances and payments. They significantly improve upon high fees and lengthy processing times in international transfers, leading to increased adoption in business payments and cross-border remittances. Major banks' participation in stablecoin issuance is expected to further strengthen market reliability.
Source: Coinbase
According to Coinbase, the stablecoin market grew 48% in 2024 to reach $193 billion, with projections exceeding $3 trillion by 2030. VanEck forecasts daily stablecoin trading volume to expand to $300 billion, while Galaxy predicts continued stablecoin issuance by major financial and tech companies including BlackRock, Robinhood, and Meta.
Meanwhile, stablecoins are likely to develop following a different trajectory in the Asian market. Southeast Asia in particular shows strong interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), suggesting increased exploration of convergence between stablecoins and CBDCs. This demonstrates how growth patterns may differ based on regional financial environments.
3.3. Accelerating institutional integration of Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization Market
Real-world asset tokenization is gaining attention as a key bridge between traditional finance and digital assets. The tokenization of various assets including government bonds, real estate, and private equity funds is creating innovative value by improving trading efficiency, lowering entry barriers, and providing 24-hour trading liquidity. This transformation has significantly enhanced market reliability through active participation from major asset managers, contributing to accelerated institutional investor inflow.
Source: Bitwise
According to Bitwise, the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market is projected to reach $30 trillion by 2050. Hashed forecasts that billions of dollars in liquidity inflow led by BlackRock and Franklin Templeton will drive RWA market growth.
Signs of change are also emerging in Asian markets. Government-led testing is actively underway, with Thailand, Indonesia, and Japan leading these developments.
3.4. Financial paradigm Innovation through AI and blockchain integration AI
The integration of AI and blockchain is driving innovation in financial services. AI agents are expected to significantly lower DeFi market entry barriers by automatically managing cryptocurrency wallets, optimizing transactions, and handling risk management. The development of decentralized AI learning networks is also expected to make AI development more accessible and widely distributed.
a16z crypto predicts that AI agents will evolve into fully autonomous economic entities based on Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs). Delphi Digital forecasts the formation of autonomous on-chain economies through frameworks like Virtuals and ai16z, projecting these frameworks to account for a significant portion of DeFi transactions.
This narrative has already gained momentum this year, with high expectations for former PayPal COO David Sacks, appointed by President Trump as the White House Cryptocurrency and AI Czar. However, as concrete achievements in AI and cryptocurrency integration remain limited, demonstrable results will likely be necessary before government policy support can fully materialize.
3.5. Building a new economic paradigm through decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN)
DePIN is presenting an innovative model for efficient infrastructure sharing and management using blockchain technology. It achieves a balance between efficient resource utilization and economic incentives through a structure where individuals receive rewards for providing various infrastructures including energy, telecommunications, and computing resources.
According to Messari, DePIN's market capitalization grew 132% in 2024 to reach $40 billion, with industry revenue expected to exceed $250 million in 2025. Galaxy predicts that over half of Bitcoin mining companies will establish partnerships with AI companies and high-performance computing service providers.
These developments show particular promise in Asia, following the P2E trend. In regions with relatively lower wage structures, DePIN projects offering higher rewards could lead to the emergence of specialized operations similar to P2E gaming farms, potentially giving rise to what might be called "DePIN factories."
4. Conclusion
The crypto market has a long history of dramatic shifts. The first quarter of this year looks set to be no exception, with unprecedented market turbulence on the horizon.
Starting with Bitcoin, the market experienced an ICO boom with Ethereum's introduction of the ERC-20 standard. Then came the DeFi era led by Uniswap, while CryptoPunks pioneered the NFT space. In gaming, Axie Infinity spearheaded the Play-to-Earn (P2E) trend, and Dogecoin's success ushered in an era of dog and cat-themed meme coins. The growth of L2 scaling solutions was another notable development. Recently, while AI projects gained momentum, Trump-related tokens have absorbed market liquidity, marking a new phase.
As such, the crypto market has undergone rapid transformations throughout its brief history. While Bitcoin's foundational values of "unlimited inflation prevention" and "decentralization" remain intact, the market continues to evolve in various directions. However, the painful truth is that very few projects have maintained genuine value over time.
In this context, the Trump administration's policy decisions require careful assessment rather than excessive optimism. With Trump having already signed 100 executive orders, the integration of cryptocurrency policies is likely to take considerable time. Especially if the economy shows steady recovery and debt ratios decrease, cryptocurrency-related policies are expected to undergo even more scrutiny.
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