Understanding Bitcoin’s Current Price Dynamics

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As this article is being prepared, the BTC price has even dropped below $65,300. Losses may deepen in the coming hours. Especially new investors believe that prices will always go up, but you cannot see this in crypto or any other market. Intermediate declines are normal and also necessary for a healthy rise. So what does the current outlook for BTC indicate?

Has Bitcoin’s Downtrend Ended?

No, BTC has not yet bounced back from the bottom and has just made a new daily low at $64,493. Buyers may step in immediately, but the outlook for the coming hours is not so bright for several reasons, and it will be more understandable to address these in bullet points.

• Entry/exit data for all ETFs except BRRR have arrived. Compared to Monday, Spot Bitcoin ETF volumes are low, and we saw a meager net entry of $36 million on April 2nd. We could have been more optimistic if not for the ARKB outflows of $87.5 million, but here probably a few institutional buyers made sales.
• We cannot see strong net entries since March 18th in the ETF channel (except for March 26th). The investor group here may have plunged into pessimism due to fear of further declines before the halving or sales from Genesis. BTC price may not get the support it wants from the ETF channel for a while.
• Bitcoin price failed to close above $71,500 and naturally, if the direction is not up, it’s down, leading sellers to push BTC below $69,000. Moreover, there is no strong demand at lower levels for now.
• As Asian investors wake up and the US stock markets open, daily volatility increases. While the article is being prepared, the decline is accelerating, and this could lead other investors to sell in a few hours.
• On Friday, US average hourly earnings, non-farm employment, and unemployment rate data will come out. If average earnings are high, that’s negative for inflation. If employment data is high, this is also bad for the size of the Fed’s reduction this year. So as Friday approaches, investors will be more cautious about buying.
• Silkroad sales reminded investors of the assets held by the US and showed that FUDs are still not over. More negative developments related to the Coinbase, Binance case are still a potential risk.

Bitcoin Predictions

Before moving on to price predictions, if we think that bull markets will continue until the first half of 2025 based on historical data, current prices should be attractive in the medium term. However, investors are more inclined to focus on short-term risks and potential entry opportunities at lower levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) currently seems poised to continue its sell-off towards the $63,970 support. Below that, there are supports at $61,250 and $58,850. Unless the price reclaims $67,915, short-term negativity is likely to persist. In extreme sell-offs, we could see spikes down to $59,000, $54,356, and $51,000 before the halving. And of course, we cannot see the future, so BTC could also quickly recover to ATH levels; the surprising nature of crypto reminds us that we should not be certain about price direction.

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