Why is Elon Musk’s D.O.G.E so widely expected to fail?

President Donald Trump created the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E) to rein in federal spending, which hit a mind-blowing $6.75 trillion in the last fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). That’s like giving every American $20,000 in cash and still having debt leftover.

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy say they can cut $2 trillion, but here’s the catch: D.O.G.E has no actual power. It’s a private advisory group that can only make suggestions Congress may or may not consider.

Add the sheer size of federal spending and the politics around it, and D.O.G.E is already shaping up to be Elon’s most questionable venture yet. Let’s break down why this whole thing looks like a flaming rocket crash.

Government spending is too big to cut

The U.S. budget is dominated by mandatory spending, which eats up about three-quarters of federal dollars. This category isn’t up for debate in Congress every year. It includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest payments on federal debt. Last year, these costs alone totaled $4.89 trillion.

Social Security cost $1.45 trillion. Medicare and Medicaid together were $1.49 trillion. These programs aren’t just big; they’re untouchable. Trump himself has promised to protect Social Security and Medicare. 

That leaves Medicaid as a potential target, but cutting it isn’t as simple as slashing numbers in a spreadsheet. According to the CBO, 56% of Medicaid benefits in 2024 will go to the aged, blind, and disabled. Many nursing homes rely heavily on Medicaid payments to keep running.

Any attempt to cut benefits risks political backlash. And if we’re being honest, no one in Washington wants to explain why grandma can’t afford her nursing home bills anymore. Interest payments are another black hole for cash.

The U.S. government spent $950 billion last year just paying interest on its $33 trillion debt. That’s almost as much as the entire defense budget. With interest rates climbing, this cost is expected to double in the next decade. D.O.G.E can’t just snap its fingers and fix that.

Discretionary spending won’t save the day

So, what’s left to cut? Discretionary spending. This is the money Congress votes on every year, and it’s split into two categories: defense and non-defense programs. Last year, defense spending hit $850 billion. This funds everything from buying aircraft carriers to feeding 1.4 million active military personnel. Good luck convincing Congress to slash defense spending in an era of rising global tensions.

Non-defense discretionary spending includes everything else: NASA, housing programs, education grants, farm subsidies—you name it. This category totaled $950 billion last year. Critics often target these programs when calling for budget cuts.

But here’s the thing. All discretionary spending combined makes up just 14% of the total budget. Even if D.O.G.E eliminated every non-defense program, it wouldn’t come close to cutting $2 trillion.

Federal employees are another target. According to the White House Office of Management and Budget, federal employee pay and benefits cost $384 billion last year. There are about 2.3 million civilian employees working for the executive branch, not counting postal workers.

One-fifth of them work for Veterans Affairs. Throw in military personnel, and the total payroll hits $584 billion. Cutting jobs sounds great until you realize it barely scratches the surface of the deficit.

Debt is the real problem

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: debt. Federal receipts, or what the government collected in taxes last year, totaled $4.92 trillion. That’s $1.83 trillion less than what it spent. This gap (the budget deficit) represents 6.4% of the U.S. GDP.

And it’s not a new problem. During the pandemic, the deficit-to-GDP ratio hit 15%. Historically, deficits of this size have only been seen during crises like World War II or major recessions.

The federal government borrows money to cover these shortfalls. Over time, that borrowing adds up. Now, the U.S. is staring down $33 trillion in total debt. The CBO projects mandatory spending will increase by more than $2 trillion in the next decade, while interest payments will double.

These trends make it nearly impossible for D.O.G.E to make meaningful cuts without addressing the underlying debt problem.

Elon and Vivek Ramaswamy are unconventional leaders

Then there’s the leadership question. Elon is a genius in tech, but running a government efficiency program is a whole different beast. He’s busy managing Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and other ventures. How much time can he realistically dedicate to D.O.G.E?

Ramaswamy, meanwhile, is known for his biotech background and libertarian-leaning politics. Neither of them has significant experience navigating federal budgets or the complexities of government programs. Critics say their private-sector success doesn’t necessarily translate to public-sector expertise. The federal budget is a web of laws, obligations, and entrenched interests.

Public perception matters. If people don’t take D.O.G.E seriously, Congress won’t either. And so far, the response has been lukewarm. Many see D.O.G.E as a vanity project for Elon and Ramaswamy rather than a genuine attempt to address the deficit. At the end of the day, D.O.G.E faces an uphill battle on every front.

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