170-year-old bank slashes Bitcoin price prediction by half

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break free from its recent range-bound trading pattern.

After dipping to a seven-month low of $82,221 in mid-November, the leading cryptocurrency has hovered close to the $90,000 mark for the past two weeks. 

At press time, BTC was trading at $91,084, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours.

Amid the volatility, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its long-term price projections for Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered trims Bitcoin targets

The banking giant now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, down from a prior $200,000 forecast.

However, it is maintaining a long-term target of $500,000, though delayed from 2028 to 2030.

Rejecting traditional halving-cycle models, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick argued:

“This time really is different. We think crypto winters are a thing of the past.”

ETF buys, not treasury buys, will drive Bitcoin price

According to Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, the downgrade reflects “a recalibration of demand expectations” following weaker ETF inflows and reduced corporate accumulation. 

Kendrick said that aggressive Bitcoin buying by firms such as MicroStrategy has “run its course,” adding that “future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only — ETF buying.”

ETF inflows have slowed markedly, with roughly 50,000 BTC entering the funds this quarter — the weakest level since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year.

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Political backdrop and Fed pressure

The report also flagged rising political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could influence risk assets like Bitcoin. 

Markets largely expect the Fed to lower rate cut by 0.25% on Dec. 10, but much depends on Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance for 2025.

Kendrick suggested that the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could tilt policy toward easing, which may strengthen demand for “hard assets” such as Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

Related: Why The Federal Reserve Is Fearful of Cryptocurrency and Blockchain