3 minutes of reading to convince yourself altcoins will drop at least another 50%

*this article was written on February 5, but much of it remains relevant to this day.

Altcoins have no bottom. If you think there can't be a zero after the decimal, you're dead wrong.

Altcoins will drop another ~40% from current levels before hitting bottom. This is about the altcoin market cap index — some individual coins will lose over 90% from here. Arguing against this is pointless; it's not my opinion, just undeniable stats. But to get what I'm saying, you need to dive deep into crypto market cycles.

Start with the basics: Bitcoin is the engine of the crypto market. And don't think that's too obvious. $BTC doesn't just set the trend — it creates opportunities and opens time windows for other assets to play out their potential. Once you grasp that, you can see the ironclad fact of $BTC's cyclical nature, which, by the way, hasn't been broken yet.

$BTC price action unfolds in fixed intervals, like peak-to-peak cycles; bottom-to-peak; or halving-to-peak. These cycles fit the same timeframe, give or take a few days. Check the details:
Peak to peak:
→ From the 2013 cycle peak to the 2017 peak: 1470 days.
→ From the 2017 peak to the 2021 peak: 1435 days.
→ From the 2021 peak to the 2025 peak: 1421 days.
Bottom to peak:
→ From the 2015 cycle bottom to the 2017 peak: 1064 days.
→ From the 2018 bottom to the 2021 peak: 1071 days.
→ From the 2022 bottom to the 2025 peak: 1043 days.
Halving to peak:
→ From the 2016 halving to the 2017 peak: 518 days.
→ From the 2020 halving to the 2021 peak: 546 days.
→ From the 2024 halving to the 2025 peak: 539 days.

The current cycle's peak was slated for early October 2025. It hit $126,000 on October 6. Since then, $BTC has shed ~45% and flashed confirming bearish signals.

What signals? Take the public Macro Trend Scanner indicator on the 2W timeframe — it nails every bear market confirmation. From 2014 through the 2022 bear structure, whenever it triggers a sell signal (usually mid-structure), price heads straight for cycle lows. We'll circle back to this indicator.

Interesting fact: every cycle’s drawdown has come with some kind of collapse. In 2014, it was the Mt. Gox meltdown. In 2018, the ICO boom died. In 2022, Terra LUNA imploded. And in this cycle, it’s the October flash crash — the one the market never really recovered from.

As my core thesis, I'll use this line:

What didn't happen with a strong $BTC won't happen with a weak one.

Let's turn our eyes back to the 2W chart, but this time to the total altcoin market cap index: Total3ES. We're sticking with the same toolkit: the Macro Trend Scanner indicator and the price movement tool. Notably, the bearish signals from the indicator pop up in roughly the same spot on both charts. This cycle, Total3ES signaled two candles earlier than BTC; last cycle, it lagged by one. Matches up with 2018 too. You can verify all this yourself.

Another key pattern: altcoin drawdowns from the signal usually run 60-70%, based on 2018 and 2022 data. Right now, that puts Total3ES at another ~40% drop from current levels. But that's not the whole story. I use a private, paid indicator that nails alt bottoms spot-on. Every cycle, the minute price enters its range, you get the prime altcoin entry points. Those upcoming 40% (or 60% from the bear signal) land smack in the middle of this indicator's channel. Oh, and altcoin bottoms typically hit 1-2 months after BTC. So I wouldn't expect lows before December 2026. Worth noting: that 40% drop is a rough guide for Total3ES. Most altcoins — probably the majority — will tank 70-90%. Keep that in mind.

I'm not telling you to do anything either; this is just analysis and stats. Make your own calls based on it, and remember: altcoins have no bottom. If you think there can't be a zero after the decimal, you're dead wrong.