41% of XRP Wallets in Loss: Opportunity or Warning for Investors?
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The "41% XRP wallet losses" headline overstates what the data shows: Glassnode's late-2025 snapshot found 41.5% of XRP supply, not average wallet balances, sitting underwater, which makes the signal a warning about fragile positioning first and an opportunity only if buyers can absorb that trapped supply.
On Nov. 17, 2025, Glassnode said only 58.5% of XRP supply was in profit, the lowest level since November 2024, while roughly 26.5 billion XRP sat below cost basis at about $2.15. That means the verified metric tracks underwater supply, not an average percentage loss across wallets.
What to Know
- Glassnode's Nov. 17, 2025 update measured a shrinking in-profit share, which is a positioning signal rather than a realized-loss tally.
- U.Today's Nov. 18, 2025 report said many buyers were likely above $2.15, leaving XRP exposed to overhead supply if price revisits that zone.
- Cointelegraph's Apr. 7, 2026 follow-up said analyst Tony Sycamore wanted a decisive recovery above $2.70 before the structure improved.
Glassnode described the holder base as top-heavy and structurally fragile, a point that matters because underwater supply often becomes active selling when spot price returns to recent entry levels. In other words, the same loss share can mark exhaustion if demand improves, or resistance if late buyers use strength to exit.
The share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53.
— glassnode (@glassnode) November 17, 2025
Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.
📉… https://t.co/CBXPzDalxVpic.twitter.com/UpLNKV7LqD
Glassnode's Loss Signal Measures Unrealized Stress, Not Realized Damage
A wallet or address is "at a loss" when the market trades below its aggregated on-chain cost basis; in the Glassnode snapshot, the key inputs were the in-profit share and the estimate of underwater XRP supply. No verified source in the brief calculates an average wallet drawdown, so the safer reading is that a large slice of supply was below acquisition price on that date.
ON-CHAIN DATA
- Snapshot date: Nov. 17, 2025
- Supply in profit: 58.5%
- Supply at a loss: 26.5 billion XRP underwater at about $2.15
- Interpretation: Glassnode's original post framed the setup as a late-buyer-heavy market structure.
U.Today's Nov. 18, 2025 coverage pushed the implication further by noting that many holders likely accumulated above $2.15, which turns any rebound toward prior cost bases into a supply test. That distinction matters even if flows into XRP-linked products have held up better than spot, a divergence also visible in XRP ETF Performance Defies 40% Price Drop With $41 Million.
Capitulation and Resistance Can Come From the Same Dataset
The contrarian recovery case starts with the underwater-supply reading: if weak hands have already absorbed a full drawdown, fresh demand can lift price quickly because the damage is already visible on-chain. The warning case uses the same data, because that underwater cohort can become an exit queue the moment XRP approaches older entry clusters.
Cointelegraph's Apr. 7, 2026 follow-up kept the focus on that overhang and said analyst Tony Sycamore was looking for a decisive move above $2.70 before the structure looked cleaner. Until that level is reclaimed, the November snapshot still argues that supply distribution, not just headline sentiment, is shaping XRP's path.
| Metric | Reading | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Supply in profit | 58.5% | The smaller the in-profit share, the larger the pool of holders waiting to exit at breakeven. |
| Underwater supply | ~26.5B XRP | A large underwater block can signal exhaustion, but it can also create resistance on rebounds. |
| Reference price in the snapshot | ~$2.15 | That level marks the zone where late-2025 buyers begin to test whether they can exit flat. |
| Repair level cited by Tony Sycamore | $2.70 | A move through that level would reduce the argument that trapped supply still dominates. |
April 2026 Context Keeps the Story Narrow and Cautious
Cointelegraph's April 7, 2026 report shows the market was still revisiting the November loss snapshot months later, which is why the data remains relevant even though it is not new. The evidence set for this run does not include a fresh regulatory filing, court order, or policy release, so the setup should be read as a market-structure story rather than a legal catalyst.
That caution also fits a broader risk-off tape, a backdrop echoed in Bitcoin Social Sentiment Hits Monthly Low as Fear Rises, where weakening conviction across majors can limit follow-through in altcoins. At the same time, capital competing for attention from infrastructure narratives such as Circle Arc roadmap: 2026 beta, USDC fees, EVM support can leave XRP needing clearer price confirmation than a single old on-chain snapshot.
What XRP Investors Should Watch After the Loss Reading
The first checkpoint is whether XRP can reclaim the $2.15 area attached to Glassnode's original snapshot and then the $2.70 threshold highlighted in the April follow-up. Clearing both would weaken the case that late-2025 buyers still control near-term supply.
The second checkpoint is a fresh update on the share of supply in profit and the underwater XRP estimate. If those on-chain readings do not improve alongside price, the older November signal still works better as a warning about trapped positioning than as a standalone entry trigger.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
Read original article on marketbit.net