Analyst predicts 90% surge for sinking crypto stock

Coinbase may be trading well below its former highs, but at least one Wall Street firm is doubling down. 

Bernstein has reiterated its Street-high $510 price target on Coinbase (COIN), arguing the exchange is quietly transitioning from a trading-dependent platform into what analysts call an emerging “everything exchange.”

The bullish revisit comes as Coinbase shares remain battered compared to their long-term performance. 

Coinbase (COIN) is down roughly 11% over the past year and about 29% from its all-time peak, even with Bitcoin (BTC) back above $91,000. 

Related: Michael Saylor's Strategy announces $1.44B dollar reserve as stock slumps

In a note published this week, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani described the broader market setup as “fragile,” citing choppy crypto price action spilling into listed crypto-exposed equities. 

Still, Bernstein says the current downturn lacks the hallmarks of previous crypto busts with speculative excess isolated mostly to what the firm described as “MSTR [MicroStrategy, now Strategy] copycats.”

Bernstein says Coinbase is evolving beyond trading

The core of the firm’s 90% upside thesis centers on Coinbase’s long-running effort to diversify away from volatile spot trading revenue. 

Bernstein describes the exchange as transforming into a full-stack financial platform, adding business lines that historically belong to broker-dealers and fintech companies rather than pure-play crypto venues.

Stablecoins already represent a meaningful portion of Coinbase’s revenue mix. 

Related: Explained: What is a stablecoin?

Yet investors, Bernstein argues, still tend to dismiss ancillary business segments such as custody, staking and infrastructure fees as “just another form of crypto beta.”

In the analysts’ view, clearer U.S. regulatory rules are the critical catalyst that could help re-rate these business lines and allow Coinbase to close the gap with offshore competitors that previously benefitted from faster token listings and fundraising fees.

Bernstein also noted Coinbase’s increasing push into token issuance through a launchpad-style model, pointing to Monad’s recent listing as evidence of appetite. Launches that feed directly into trading activity, the analysts said, can create a “flywheel” effect of issuance, listing and higher volume.

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New products and Base expansion add to bullish case

A major near-term catalyst is Coinbase’s Dec. 17 product showcase, which Bernstein expects to feature developments in tokenized equities, prediction markets and other tools designed to broaden the exchange’s reach beyond spot crypto trading.

The firm also noted Coinbase’s deeper expansion into derivatives, helped by its integration with Deribit, which positions the exchange increasingly close to platforms like Robinhood (HOOD) as both sides move into each other’s product territory.

On the consumer side, the Base app—built around wallet functionality, payments and social features—creates a single on-chain access point for broader token markets. The Base network, now processing more than 9 million transactions per day, has become a major venue for token deployments and ETH-denominated sequencer fees.

Related: Coinbase's Jesse Pollak explains what investors are missing onchain with Base

Despite the slump, analysts see room to run

At publication, Coinbase traded near $267, implying nearly 90% upside to Bernstein’s $510 target. 

Whether the “everything exchange” thesis materializes remains an open question — but even after an 11% yearly dip and a 29% slide from its all-time high, at least one corner of Wall Street thinks Coinbase’s next move could be sharply higher.

Earlier Wall Street calls set the $510 Coinbase target

On Nov. 17, 2025, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reaffirmed a “Buy” rating on Coinbase Global (COIN) with a $510 price target, extending what was already one of the Street’s most bullish calls on the stock.

On Nov. 10, Monness Crespi had upgraded Coinbase from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a $375 target, citing real-world momentum in stablecoin utility, expectations for new announcements at the Dec. 17 product event and growing interest in tokenized equity ahead of potential SEC commentary.

On Oct. 30, Coinbase reported $1.9 billion in revenue, $433 million in net income and $801 million in adjusted EBITDA.