Bernstein reveals new Bitcoin target amid market pullback

In the last couple of weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed the $90,000 level and lost it again multiple times.

As of Dec. 8, Bitcoin was changing hands at $89,837, up 0.4% over the past 24 hours, well below its all-time high above $126,000 reached in early October.

Since Oct. 10, BTC has traded between $82,000 and $90,000, reflecting a notable correction from its peak.

As analysts and traders continue to debate whether the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is in or out, Bernstein analysts have set a couple of new price targets for the leading cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle stems from its programmed halving events, which occur roughly every four years and cut the block reward miners earn by half. 

This supply reduction historically drives market phases of accumulation, rally and correction.

Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 preceded major bull runs followed by extended bear markets. Analysts, however, are divided over whether this pattern will persist as Bitcoin matures.

Bitmine chairperson Tom Lee, during a recent appearance at Binance Blockchain Week, explained that the Bitcoin cycle will be broken in the coming weeks.

"I think that in the next 8 weeks we will break the 4-year Bitcoin cycle. This time it won't be a 4-year cycle."

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 9–10, traders are watching whether an anticipated rate cut could influence BTC’s near-term trajectory.

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Bernstein forecasts elongated Bitcoin cycle

In a new research note, Bernstein said the recent market pullback has not disrupted institutional demand, suggesting Bitcoin’s price cycle may be evolving beyond the traditional four-year rhythm.

“In view of recent market correction, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern and is now in an elongated bull cycle, with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling,” Bernstein wrote.

The firm added that despite Bitcoin’s 30% correction, ETF outflows accounted for less than 5%, indicating strong investor conviction.

Bernstein raised its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000 and expects the cycle to peak in 2027 at around $200,000. Its long-term forecast for 2033 is approximately $1 million per BTC.

The firm had previously predicted Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2025. 

Related: Bitcoin Miners Are No Longer 'HODLing,' Thanks to High Energy Costs and A Market Downturn