Billionaire brothers get regulatory nod to launch prediction market

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI) announced that its affiliate, Gemini Titan, LLC, has received authorization from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). 

The approval allows Gemini to offer regulated event-based prediction markets to US customers, according to a press release issued on Dec. 10, 2025.

Gemini first applied for a DCM license on March 10, 2020, marking the end of a five-year review process that co-founder Tyler Winklevoss described on X as “the beginning of a new chapter” for the company.

“Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for @Gemini,” Winklevoss wrote. “We thank @POTUS for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto and Acting Chairman @CarolineDPham for her hard work and dedication to help realize President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world.”

The Winklevoss twins increased their backing of Trump after what they saw as the Biden administration’s “war on crypto.” Under Biden, regulators like the SEC and CFTC intensified enforcement actions against exchanges, creating uncertainty for firms like Gemini. 

Related: Gemini's Tyler Winklevoss has a curt response to Gary Gensler: 'Total disgrace..'

Gemini now rivals Kalshi and Polymarket

Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. These “event contracts” are framed as simple yes-or-no questions — for example, whether Bitcoin (BTC) will close the year above a specific price or whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates or not.

Each contract’s price reflects the market’s perceived probability of the event occurring. 

With CFTC approval, Gemini Titan joins a short list of regulated platforms in the US offering event-based trading, currently led by Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi, founded in 2018 and also regulated by the CFTC, offers event contracts on economic indicators, politics, sports, and pop culture. The platform has positioned itself as a regulated alternative to offshore betting exchanges.

Polymarket, by contrast, operates on the blockchain and allows users to trade outcomes using stablecoins. It is the world's largest prediction market, which recently raised $2 billion from the New York Stock Exchange parent, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), at a valuation of $9 billion.

Prediction markets are steadily becoming important in traditional finance. Recently, a Wall Street survey revealed that many are optimistic about the future of prediction markets, although a certain level of caution remains.

Gemini’s DCM license enables it to compete directly with these firms under full regulatory approval.

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Expanding Gemini’s vision for a ‘financial super app’

Gemini said that trading on its new markets will be available to US customers using dollars held in their accounts, with mobile functionality coming to the Gemini app at a later date.

The firm added that Gemini Titan plans to expand its derivatives lineup to include futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. users, though these offerings remain subject to further development and oversight.

According to Gemini, the move into prediction markets supports its broader ambition to become a “one-stop financial super app,” combining traditional finance, crypto trading, and innovative forecasting tools under one platform.

Gemini went public on Nasdaq on Sept. 12, 2025, backed by major Wall Street firms including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Evercore, and Mizuho. Deloitte & Touche served as auditor, and Davis Polk & Wardwell represented the underwriters.

Related: Gemini crypto exchange exec shares bitcoin investment strategy