Bitcoin, energy, and geopolitics : How do wars redefine global value?

In a few days, everything can change. The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel not only disrupts geopolitical balances: it is already reconfiguring global markets. Oil rising, gas under tension, precious metals rattled, maritime routes weakened, increased volatility… we are entering a phase where economic benchmarks evolve rapidly. In this context of growing geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin is gradually establishing itself as an indicator of these transformations, revealing a deeper mutation of the global system, whose first implications are already visible to us.

When energy wavers, markets tumble

“Control the oil and you control the nations,” a historic quote often attributed to Henry Kissinger, the former U.S. Secretary of State, which takes on full meaning today as the Middle East conflict puts energy back at the heart of global economic balances.

Energy serves as the pivotal factor in every major crisis within the global energy market. In the short term, tensions trigger immediate reactions in financial markets, but their impact quickly goes beyond this initial phase. It is often through energy that major economic crises begin to materialize.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and a notable share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit, perfectly illustrates this vulnerability of energy supply flows. The traffic disruption in this area caused an immediate shock to energy markets.

In the first weeks of the conflict, oil prices broke the $100 per barrel mark, with peaks reaching $114. Some projections even foresee higher levels in case of a prolonged blockade. 

However, the gas market, particularly in Europe, experiences the most significant impact. From the start of the crisis, European gas prices jumped 20% to 45% in a few days, reaching about €46/MWh, before climbing to nearly €70/MWh (+29%) in the following weeks.

In some cases, prices nearly doubled in March, notably due to the partial halt of gas exports and tensions on energy infrastructures, reinforcing the perception of a global energy crisis.

This dynamic is also visible in real time on markets, as shown by the movements of TTF contracts relayed by Bloomberg on X, where some projections anticipate sustainably high prices by 2027 amid persistent geopolitical tensions.

These increases have direct consequences on the real economy. In Europe, rising energy prices contribute to an inflation rate estimated between 2.5% and 2.8% while weighing growth prospects and investors’ asset allocation.

Beyond the numbers, the dynamic is clear: markets now react as much to scenarios as to events themselves. Investors adjust their positions based on risks of escalation, disruption of energy flows, or a global economic slowdown, causing significant capital flow movements. But most importantly, these tensions deeply redefine the perception of value.

When access to energy becomes uncertain, it’s no longer just financial assets that structure the economy, but the ability to secure essential resources. Thus, oil, maritime routes, and gas supplies become central, revealing a shift where value now depends on control of resources and flows.

Gold and silver : safe haven assets tested by war

Traditionally, geopolitical crises support precious metals, particularly gold, among defensive financial assets. During the escalation between Iran, the U.S., and Israel, this pattern first held, with prices near $4,700 to $4,800 per ounce. But this dynamic quickly reversed. Gold has fallen about -17% since the start of the conflict and up to -25% from recent highs.

Silver follows the same trajectory, with drops reaching -25%. This volatility is mainly explained by rising energy prices fueling inflation and keeping interest rates high, an unfavorable environment for gold. Additionally, investors favor liquidity, leading to massive sales, including of safe haven assets. 

In a context of strong global economic instability, even reputedly stable assets lose their traditional behavior. Precious metals no longer consistently play their safe haven role, revealing a market now influenced by energy, rates, and geopolitical tensions.

The petrodollar under pressure : a monetary system tipping over

Beyond energy and markets, the current geopolitical upheavals fit into a broader transformation of the international monetary system. Since the 1970s, markets have mostly priced oil in dollars, sustainably strengthening the American currency’s dominance after the end of the gold standard.

This system allowed the dollar to become the main global reserve currency. However, this dominance is gradually evolving. According to IMF data from the COFER program, the dollar’s share in global reserves dropped from about 70% in the early 2000s to nearly 56% today, reflecting a gradual diversification of central banks toward other currencies. 

Recent geopolitical tensions have accelerated this dynamic. Since 2022, several countries, including China and Russia, have multiplied energy transactions in alternative currencies, notably yuan and ruble. Similarly, some BRICS members discuss creating alternative exchange mechanisms for international trade.

The current crisis, marked by the war between Iran, the U.S., and Israel, adds an additional dimension to these developments. Conflicts over energy routes and uncertainties linked to sanctions reinforce incentives to diversify payment mechanisms and currency reserves.

Within this framework, some initiatives already illustrate this transition: At the time of writing, sources report that Iran has implemented a controlled passage system by the Revolutionary Guards in the Strait of Hormuz. In this area, some ships must obtain prior validation and, in some cases, pay in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrencies to ensure their transit. This system reflects broader efforts to circumvent sanctions and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.

What markets observe today is a gradual questioning of a system in place for more than 50 years. Thus, the international monetary system does not disappear but evolves toward a more fragmented configuration, where several benchmarks coexist. This evolution marks a progressive shift from a unipolar monetary system toward a more multipolar system.

Bitcoin : A New Safe Haven Amid Geopolitical Chaos?

It is in this context of global recomposition that a deeper evolution of the notion of value emerges. As geopolitical dynamics redefine economic balances, Bitcoin stands out as an asset capable of evolving independently from traditional systems and the classic financial system.

This asset fits into this dynamic as a unique instrument, whose decentralized structure and limited supply of 21 million units strengthen its positioning in an environment marked by economic and geopolitical instability.

However, its behavior differs from traditional safe havens. During the early phases of the conflict, the Bitcoin market fell about 15% before quickly rebounding, with daily variations sometimes exceeding 5%, confirming volatility significantly higher than that of traditional assets.

This volatility is nevertheless part of an increasingly structured market. Growing liquidity, derivatives, ETFs, and arbitrage strategies help absorb some shocks, favoring phases of rapid correction followed by marked rebounds. Unlike energy or metals, directly affected by the conflict, Bitcoin reacts more indirectly, with a less brutal impact but more pronounced volatility.

This two-step behavior—initial drop, then recovery—shows it does not function as a classic safe haven while progressively revealing the limits of the current system. Rather than a daily currency, it tends to establish itself as a global store of value. Bitcoin does not protect immediately—it absorbs system distrust. Its ability to evolve outside state circuits while remaining integrated into global dynamics affords it a special place in this transition phase.

We thus witness a progressive redefinition of value, where traditional benchmarks now coexist with new forms of assets. In this new balance, markets now react as much to global tensions as to the economy. Consequently, value no longer depends solely on currency but on international balances, resources, and trust in the monetary system. A transformation that Bitcoin does not create but reveals.