Bitcoin Eyes $85.000 As Bulls Push Past Key Levels

Bitcoin ($BTC) has cleared two closely watched on-chain cost basis levels in a single move, with on-chain analytics firm @glassnode now pointing to $85.2K as the next structural test for bulls.

Key On-Chain Levels Cleared in One Move

Bitcoin pushed to $81K, breaking above both the True Market Mean at $78.2K and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79.1K, clearing the average acquisition price of all actively transacted supply and recent buyers over the past 155 days in a single leg higher. The move is significant in both speed and scope. The True Market Mean tracks the cost basis of actively transacted supply, and a reclaim of this level historically marks a transition from deep bear market conditions toward a more constructive regime.

Should price sustain above these two levels, the deep value regime that persisted from early February 2026 would rank among the shortest episodes of its kind in Bitcoin market history. Attention now shifts to the next major resistance at the Active Realized Price near $85.2K, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply and represents the next structural threshold.

The 30-day moving average of Net Realized Profit and Loss has turned positive at 0.003% of market cap, while long-term holder profit taking has risen to $180M per day, still well below cycle peak levels above $1B per day. That said, realized loss remains elevated at $479M per day, 140% above the cycle baseline, with a sustained compression below $200M per day needed to confirm a more durable recovery regime.

ETF Flows Flip Positive as Institutions Return

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a notable recovery in demand, with the 30-day moving average of net flows turning firmly positive after an extended period of sustained outflows. This shift marks a clear inflection in institutional appetite, following heavy distribution throughout the late-2025 to early-2026 drawdown.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew nearly $2 billion in net inflows in April 2026, the best monthly performance since October 2025. The surge followed a four-month streak of outflows, which ended in March with $1.32 billion in net inflows.ETFs have pulled in a total of $3.29 billion in investor funds over the past two months, according to data from SoSoValue.

Still, caution is warranted. Perpetual futures funding rates remain predominantly negative even as price recovers toward the $80K region, indicating that short positioning continues to dominate, with traders willing to pay to maintain downside exposure despite the recent upward move. The rally has momentum, but the market has not yet fully confirmed a regime change.

Sources:
Glassnode Week On-Chain Report, Week 18 2026: Bulls Approach the Ceiling
CoinDesk: The Bitcoin ETF Recovery in Flows Is Real. It Is Just Not Complete Yet