Bitcoin Gains Slow After 2024 Halving

The halving cycle, long considered the compass of the crypto market, shows signs of exhaustion. In 2024, bitcoin does not reproduce the spectacular rallies of past cycles, with significantly lower performance. This break intrigues analysts and rekindles a fundamental debate: is the historical Bitcoin model changing? Between decreasing volatility and market transformation, this cycle could well mark a lasting shift.

A 2024 Cycle Significantly Less Performing Than Its Predecessors

The finding is unequivocal: the current cycle significantly underperforms its predecessors. Since the 2024 halving, bitcoin has shown an increase of about 97 %, far behind historical performances.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, summarizes this situation bluntly: “the fourth cycle significantly underperforms compared to previous ones… Has this become the new norm, or just a temporary phase before returning to normal?”.

Comparative data clearly illustrate this break :

• 2012 : +9,294 % ;
• 2016 : +2,950 % ;
• 2020 : +761 % ;
• 2024 : +97 %.

Beyond performance, market dynamics are evolving noticeably. Volatility, once the hallmark of bitcoin, is in clear decline. The 2020 cycle showed levels close to 9.64 %, whereas the current cycle peaks at about 3.11 %, with recent levels around 1.75 %. This contraction indicates a profound change in market behavior, with more contained fluctuations and a less explosive trajectory.

ETF, Bitcoin Market Timing, and Structural Transformation

A major factor distinguishes this cycle from previous ones: a historical bitcoin peak was reached even before the halving, in March 2024, when the price exceeded 70,000 dollars. This unprecedented situation is largely explained by the arrival of spot ETFs in the United States, which anticipated and amplified institutional demand. This temporal shift blurs traditional benchmarks and complicates the analysis of cycles, historically built around the halving as the starting point of bullish phases.

Meanwhile, the structure of corrections is also evolving. Maximum drops, once between 80% and 90%, now appear more contained. The recent drop, from about 125,000 to 60,000 dollars, represents a correction close to 50%, significantly less severe than in previous cycles. This evolution strengthens the idea of a deeper market, where institutional capital cushions extreme movements and progressively changes the rules of the game.

Faced with these transformations, one question arises : is the four-year cycle model disappearing or simply reinventing itself? Some observers, like Jan van Eck, already mention the possibility of a nearby bottom and a potential recovery by 2026. Between gradual normalization and persistent uncertainties, bitcoin seems to enter a new phase of its history, where raw performance gives way to stability and integration into traditional financial markets.