Bitcoin Won't Rally Until Fed Moves, Arthur Hayes Warns

Arthur Hayes says Maelstrom spent the first quarter of 2026 in a "no-trade zone," citing AI-driven job losses and the Iran war as reasons to stay sidelined.

Hayes Flags Trading Freeze

In a new essay published Apr. 16, the BitMEX co-founder wrote that his family office did almost no trading in the first quarter beyond slowly adding to a long position in Hyperliquid.

Hayes pointed to two forces behind the pause. One is the rise of agentic AI, which he argued will gut knowledge-worker jobs and trigger a deflationary bust. The other is the U.S.-Iran war, now nearly seven weeks old.

He said the only question that matters is how commodities will move through the Strait of Hormuz. On Apr. 12, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would block all ships entering or leaving the waterway, escalating the standoff.

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Hayes On Bitcoin Outlook

Hayes laid out three investable scenarios, ranging from a return to the prewar status quo to a full Iranian toll regime paid in yuan, gold or Bitcoin(BTC).

He said Bitcoin could spike to $80,000 or $90,000 in a ceasefire case, but will not rally in earnest until the Federal Reserve injects liquidity. In a broader crisis, he expects Bitcoin to drop first, then rally once central banks print.

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