[Bitop Review] US-Iran Ceasefire Extension Influences Inflation Expectations; Gold Prices Rebound After Two-Day Decline

After experiencing a two-day decline, international gold prices have shown signs of stabilizing, influenced by the extension of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. The stalemate between the two sides in the Strait of Hormuz continues, and a schedule for a new round of peace talks has not yet been finalized. The ensuing energy supply risks have kept Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, further exacerbating inflation pressures in the global market. Spot gold is currently trading at $4,733. Reports indicate that funds are gradually flowing back into gold ETFs, providing fundamental support for gold prices.

Geopolitical Stalemate and Energy Market Impact

The US announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, but the standoff between the two sides in the Strait of Hormuz remains severe. This conflict, now entering its eighth week, has put the global energy supply chain to the test, pushing Brent crude oil prices above the $100 per barrel mark. Persistently high energy prices have driven up market expectations for inflation. Consequently, central banks may lean towards maintaining or raising interest rates to combat inflationary pressures, which creates a degree of macroeconomic headwind for non-yielding gold assets.

Positioning Consolidation and Fundamental Support

Despite the pressure from interest rate policies, gold prices have gradually stabilized following the sell-off. According to market analysis, the positioning in the current gold market has significantly consolidated. By the end of February, highly leveraged speculative trading had substantially decreased, and the current price trend is driven more by fundamentals. The improvement in the positioning structure has reduced the risk of disorderly price fluctuations. Investment institutions also point out that the tactical allocation value of gold has emerged in this environment, and some institutions have dynamically adjusted their gold weightings to cope with potential market uncertainties.

ETF Fund Flows and Upside Price Resistance

The fund movements of gold ETFs confirm the recovery of safe-haven demand. A BMO report shows that gold ETFs have seen continuous net inflows for three consecutive weeks, driving spot gold prices to climb steadily since the sell-off wave in March. However, the upward price momentum has recently slowed down. As gold prices approach the $4,850 mark, profit-taking selling pressure may emerge in the Asian market. This also indicates that investors remain cautious. Under complex geopolitical conditions, professional institutions show a low willingness to build large positions, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern.

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