Crypto analyst stays bullish ahead of key 10 a.m. inflation data
ETH
BULLISH
SOL
WHEN
XRP
The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is scheduled to be released on Dec. 5,
It remains one of the most closely watched indicators across financial markets.
PCE Price Index tracks the average prices Americans pay for goods and services, showing how the cost of living changes over time.
The Index also reflects shifts in consumer behavior, such as when people switch to cheaper products.
Release delayed amid government shutdown
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the September PCE inflation data on Dec. 5, following a delay caused by the recent government shutdown.
The next scheduled release, covering December’s PCE data, is expected at the end of January 2026.
If the PCE data comes in hotter than expected, suggesting that inflation is rising, investors typically anticipate that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer.
This often strengthens the U.S. dollar (DXY) and pressures risk assets, including crypto. As a result, BTC and major altcoins may decline as liquidity tightens and risk appetite fades.
However, a cooler-than-expected PCE reading could signal easing inflation, prompting markets to price in earlier rate cuts.
That scenario tends to weaken the dollar, fuel a rally in equities, and spark a risk-on rebound across the digital asset market, with BTC, ETH, and high-beta altcoins often surging on dovish inflation data.
Analyst sees bullish setup if inflation cools
Ahead of the Dec. 5 PCE release, cryptocurrency analyst Max Crypto shared a bullish outlook, predicting that the headline PCE will hold around 2.9%.
He noted that a figure below 2.9% could trigger a strong bullish reaction, while a higher reading could pressure markets into a short-term correction.
REMINDER 🚨
— Max Crypto (@MaxCrypto) December 5, 2025
🇺🇸 US PCE data will drop today at 8:30am ET.
Expectations: 2.9%
➡️ If PCE > 2.9%, bearish for markets
➡️ If PCE = 2.9%, bullish for markets as last month's PCE was also 2.9%
➡️ If PCE < 2.9%, very bullish for markets. pic.twitter.com/s881LvSPW4
The previous PCE data, released on Sept. 26, showed inflation holding firm at 2.7% year-on-year, with core PCE at 2.9%.
Citi and Goldman Sachs expect inflation to remain steady but slightly above the previous month’s pace.
Citi projects the headline PCE to rise 0.29% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year.
Headline PCE measures the average change in prices for all goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers. It includes everything people spend money on, such as food, energy, housing, healthcare, and transportation.
Citi predicts core PCE, which excludes food and energy, to increase 0.19% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year.
Goldman Sachs shares a similar outlook for the headline figure, predicting a 0.29% monthly and 2.8% annual rise, but sees core PCE slightly higher at 0.22% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year.
Bitcoin, Ethereum. XRP slip ahead of release
Ahead of the latest data print, the broader crypto market traded in the red, according to CoinGecko.
