Expert Analyst Delves Deep into Bitcoin: “Both Rises and Falls Aren’t What They Used to Be!”

Although the price of Bitcoin (BTC) increases numerically in each cycle, its actual upward momentum and potential are decreasing.

Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn argues that the current Bitcoin market cycle is dramatically weaker compared to the previous three cycles.

At this point, Thorn compared the price movements since the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 to the 2012, 2016, and 2020 cycles.

The study concluded that volatility has significantly decreased in the current cycle and the upside potential is lower.

Although Bitcoin reached its all-time high of over $125,000 on October 5, 2025, it only managed to surpass 97% of its 2024 halving price of approximately $63,000. According to the analyst, this indicates that the peak of the cycle so far has been significantly calmer compared to other cycles.

This increase is quite small compared to other cycles. According to historical data, in the 2012 halving cycle, the BTC price increased by approximately 9,294%, rising to $1,163. In 2016, it approached $19,891 with an increase of approximately 2,950%, and finally, in the 2020 cycle, a gain of approximately 761% was observed.

According to the analyst, the decreasing volatility with each new BTC halving cycle indicates that traditional market dynamics are changing and that the price is becoming more influenced by factors other than the four-year halving cycle theory.

While bull cycles in Bitcoin are becoming less frequent, Fidelity analysts also note that with decreasing volatility, Bitcoin declines are becoming less severe.

At this point, according to Zack Wainwright, research analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, declines in previous Bitcoin bear markets ranged from 80% to 90%. However, in the latest cycle, Bitcoin’s drop from its all-time high of $125,000 to $60,000 represents a decline of approximately 50%.

*This is not investment advice.

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