JPMorgan reveals new Bitcoin price if it trades like gold

The debate between which is better, Bitcoin or gold, is seeing no signs of dying down. In fact, two of the fiercest opponents in the gold versus Bitcoin debate just clashed in a recent panel.

During Binance Blockchain Week, veteran gold advocate Peter Schiff debated Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) in a widely watched panel that reignited the BTC-versus-gold rivalry. 

Schiff argued that Bitcoin “has no real backing” and relies purely on “hope and speculation,” warning that falling interest in BTC makes it an increasingly risky asset.

CZ countered that Bitcoin’s global usage is growing rapidly, with millions relying on it for remittances, payments and investment — while most gold remains locked in vaults, inaccessible to everyday users.

Around the same time, the world's largest bank shared a new theory on Bitcoin's potential price. And it has something to do with gold.

JPMorgan offers a third viewpoint

Rather than taking sides, JPMorgan introduced a fresh angle to the debate. 

The bank says Bitcoin’s theoretical valuation can be linked directly to gold through its volatility-adjusted Bitcoin-to-gold model. It estimates what BTC would be worth if it captured part of gold’s store-of-value role.

Gold’s total market is about $29.31 trillion, but because Bitcoin is far more volatile, JPMorgan applies a discount to determine BTC’s fair value. 

To understand the difference in volatility, let's look at gold and Bitcoin prices in the past 3 months, 1 year and 5 months:

• Over the last 3 months, gold rose 17.17%, while Bitcoin fell 19%.
• Year-to-date data reveals that gold surged 60.01%, compared with Bitcoin’s 8.2% decline.
• Across five years, gold gained 125.97%, while Bitcoin slipped 3.4%.

As Bitcoin’s volatility continues, the model assigns BTC a new theoretical value.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote on Dec. 3 that the framework implies a Bitcoin price near $170,000 within six to twelve months, as reported by Bloomberg.

The new projection follows one of the most violent downturns in Bitcoin’s history. In early October, roughly $19 billion in digital assets were liquidated, driving BTC from a record high above $126,000 to nearly $80,000. 

Bitcoin traded had dropped by 3.2% in the past 24 hours on Dec. 5, trading at $89,251.43, as per CoinGecko.

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JPMorgan’s previous bullish outlook

This is not the first time JPMorgan has issued an aggressive long-term target for Bitcoin. 

In a Nov. 26 note, the bank said BTC could reach $240,000 over time, arguing that the crypto market is now influenced more by macroeconomic forces than Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle.

“Crypto is moving away from resembling a venture capital style ecosystem to a typical tradable macro asset class supported by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation,” analysts wrote, while noting that liquidity remains fragmented enough to produce sharp swings.

The bank also filed a new structured product tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), offering investors the potential for “uncapped” gains through 2028 if Bitcoin rallies sharply.

MicroStrategy delisting fears may be overblown

JPMorgan also addressed concerns surrounding Michael Saylor's Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, and speculation that it could be removed from MSCI indexes. The bank said the impact would likely be minimal.

“In our opinion, a decision to remove MicroStrategy from MSCI indices would have limited downside to MicroStrategy and Bitcoin, as index exclusion has already been more than priced in,” analysts wrote.

Related: JPMorgan says Bitcoin looks cheaper compared to gold