Lummis turns up the pressure as the CLARITY Act enters merger phase

Committee hurdle cleared, merger work begins

Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) is keeping the heat on Congress as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act moves into its next critical phase. On Friday, she posted that "American consumers and industry deserve a real framework, not regulatory limbo," signalling she has no intention of letting momentum slip.

The Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 in a markup session to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (the CLARITY Act), setting up the landmark market structure legislation for a potential vote before the full Senate.The Senate Banking Committee largely voted along party lines, with Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joining all Republicans on the panel to support the bill.

The bill would provide a system of regulation for the offer and sale of digital commodities by the SEC and the CFTC.It draws a clear boundary between SEC and CFTC jurisdiction over digital assets and would permanently classify Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum as non-securities.

What comes next and when

The bill must now be merged with a separate version from the Senate Agriculture Committee before a full Senate vote, which can only take place with the support of 60 members of the Senate.Once a unified Senate bill is finalised, Majority Leader John Thune will need to bring a motion to proceed, which requires 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support advancing the bill.

Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research Alex Thorn raised his estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 75%, citing the Senate Banking Committee's 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14 as the breakthrough the bill needed.Thorn posted the timeline in Galaxy Research's weekly brief on May 16: Senate Banking and Agriculture reconciliation in early June, Senate floor consideration by mid-June, final Senate passage before the end of June, House reconciliation through July, and a potential Trump signature the week of August 3.

The White House has been targeting July 4 for a presidential signature, though given the reconciliation process still ahead, August 3 now appears to be the more realistic timeline according to Galaxy Research's analysis. Lummis herself has called June "probably pretty optimistic."

Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith offered a more cautious 60% probability of passage, saying "a lot can go wrong" despite growing bipartisan momentum.Polymarket traders priced 2026 passage at 68% as of May 18, up from 46% at the start of the month but still below Thorn's estimate.

The measure is opposed by banks, unions, and law enforcement agencies that say various provisions would hurt consumers and endanger financial systems.Senator Elizabeth Warren's continued opposition on anti-money-laundering and ethics grounds remains unresolved, and ethics language restricting senior officials' digital asset holdings has created friction among some offices.

Sources:
CNBC: Crypto industry scores win as Clarity Act clears Senate hurdle
Crypto.news: Galaxy's Alex Thorn lifts CLARITY Act odds to 75%
Elliptic: CLARITY Act advances from Senate Banking Committee