Mysterious trader shorts $10M in oil ahead of Powell's last FOMC meeting

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on the next rate cut on April 29. 

This is also the last time Jerome Powell will address the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the Federal Reserve chairman. He is set to be replaced by Kevin Warsh. 

And right on cue, mysterious traders are waking up.

Related: Millionaire trader makes high-leverage bet on Brent oil

What's the market saying about rate cuts?

The consensus for the FOMC so far has been that the rates will be held steady. CME FedWatch shows a 100% probability that the target rate will remain within the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

This will mark a third consecutive pause for 2026.

March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024. CPI is the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. 

The March rise was fueled by Iran war-induced oil price shocks that have reduced rate cut expectations.

Stubborn inflation and a resilient labor market are leaving little room for easing. Energy prices are elevated and the central bank has been sitting above its 2% inflation target for five years now.

So the recipe for cutting rates isn't here yet.

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Whale shorts oil ahead of FOMC

The crypto whale identified by wallet address 0x46624eC7d7ef5A121ffaBFaEB71e7Db30D5abFCA has made a significant move on Hyperliquid, the decentralised perpetuals exchange.

The trader deposited approximately $4.15 million in USDC and immediately deployed it into an aggressive short position on xyz: BRENTOIL, a synthetic Brent crude oil derivative.

The wallet opened a 3x leveraged short on 100,000 units of xyz: BRENTOIL at an entry price of $106.14, bringing the total notional value of the position to just under $11 million.

The position is isolated, meaning the whale's maximum loss is capped at the deposited margin rather than the entire portfolio.

At the time of the snapshot, the position was already underwater, with a paper loss of approximately $353,000 as the price of xyz: BRENTOIL climbed to $109.67,  moving against the short. 

The liquidation price sits at $147.44, giving the trader a meaningful buffer before a forced close.

Related: US national debt surges to $38 trillion as Iran war shadows FOMC decision