TD Cowen Sees Bitcoin At $140K, Starts PBTC Coverage

• TD Cowen starts coverage on Bitcoin treasury firms, defining a new equity class with models tied to per-share BTC holdings.
• The bank forecasts Bitcoin reaching $140K by 2026, signaling strong long-term outlook despite ongoing policy uncertainty.
• Buy ratings issued across firms as targets reflect growth potential, while Strategy outlook was revised lower amid policy shifts.

TD Cowen launched equity research coverage on Bitcoin treasury companies while projecting Bitcoin to reach $140,000 by late 2026. The investment bank, led by analyst Lance Vitanza, issued buy ratings on several firms. The move introduces formal valuation models for companies holding Bitcoin on balance sheets, marking a structured step into the sector.

New Coverage Defines Bitcoin Treasury Category

TD Cowen categorized public Bitcoin treasury companies as a distinct equity class. These firms accumulate Bitcoin and aim to grow holdings on a per-share basis. According to the bank, this model differs from both spot Bitcoin ETFs and traditional technology stocks.

The firm published proprietary valuation models and key performance indicators tied to Bitcoin holdings. This is one of the first structured research efforts by a major bank in this segment. The coverage also extends to one Ethereum-focused digital asset treasury.

Buy Ratings Issued Across Covered Firms

Among the firms, Nakamoto Holdings received a buy rating with a $1.00 price target. The stock closed at $0.21 on April 8, according to the report. TD Cowen projected $394 million in Bitcoin gains for fiscal year 2027 using a 2x multiple.

Nakamoto’s structure includes stakes in firms like Metaplanet in Japan and Treasury BV in the Netherlands. It also operates across media, Bitcoin advocacy, and digital asset management. Additionally, SharpLink Gaming and Strive received buy ratings with targets of $16 and $26.

Policy Cycle and Revised Projections 

Alongside new coverage, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook on Strategy. The firm lowered its price target to $350 from $440. It also reduced its 2026 Bitcoin gains forecast to $7.87 billion from $10.17 billion.According to TD Cowen, the current policy cycle influences digital asset adoption. The firm previously pointed to a pro-crypto environment driven by regulatory alignment. However, it expects reforms to rely on agency actions rather than broad legislation.

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