Visa, Mastercard’s $1 trillion market cap race: who will become the payment powerhouse?

As the world gradually enters the cashless era, the global payments industry is heating up. Visa and Mastercard, the two leading card payment companies, are on a collision course to join the elite $1 trillion market cap club. 

According to a recent analysis by BestBrokers, Visa is projected to hit this milestone in October 2028, roughly four months ahead of Mastercard. 

Visa holds a commanding position in the payments space. With a current market cap of $658.7 billion, it dwarfs Mastercard’s $506 billion. 

BestBrokers’ analysis, based on historical growth rates since 2022, projects Visa will reach $1 trillion in just over three years, ranking seventh among the top 10 companies expected to hit this mark. Its average three-year growth rate of 13.97% reflects steady, reliable performance.

The company’s scale gives it an edge. As the world’s largest payment card operator by market cap and revenue, it processes billions of transactions annually. Its global network and entrenched partnerships with financial institutions and merchants make it a formidable player. Despite not having the fastest growth rate, its sheer size ensures it would likely cross the $1 trillion threshold first.

Meanwhile, Mastercard is no pushover, with a slightly higher three-year growth rate of 14.10%, closing the gap with Visa. BestBrokers projects it will reach $1 trillion in February 2029, just four months after Visa, placing it ninth in the race. 

Its Q2 2025 results were a wake-up call for investors. Revenue surged 16.8% year-on-year, outpacing Visa and boosting its margins to an impressive 66%.

The company’s strategic moves are fuelling its momentum. So far this year, it has partnered with Infosys to scale cross-border payments, collaborated with Gemini and Ripple on an XRP rewards credit card, and expanded stablecoin settlements with Circle in EMEA. 

What’s driving Visa and Mastercard’s growth?

The payments industry is undergoing rapid transformation. Digital transactions, mobile payments, and cryptocurrencies are reshaping how money moves. Visa and Mastercard are capitalising on these trends, but their approaches differ.

Visa’s dominance comes from its scale and reliability. Its global network processes transactions in over 200 countries, supported by partnerships with major financial institutions. This entrenched position makes it a go-to for merchants and consumers alike. However, its growth rate of 13.97% suggests a steady but less aggressive trajectory compared to Mastercard.

Mastercard, on the other hand, is leaning into innovation. Its recent partnerships with fintech leaders like Ripple and Circle signal a push into emerging technologies like stablecoins and blockchain. These moves could give Mastercard an edge in capturing younger, tech-savvy consumers.

It’s 16.8% revenue growth in Q2 2025 and raised full-year guidance reflects confidence in its strategy.

Visa and Mastercard are not alone in chasing the $1 trillion milestone. BestBrokers’ analysis, using data from CompaniesMarketCap.com, examined the 25 most valuable global companies as of August 4, 2025.

The study calculated future valuations based on average growth rates since 2022. 

Other companies on their way to a $1 trillion market cap:

• JPMorgan Chase leads the pack with a $795.67 billion market cap and a blistering 33.39% three-year growth rate. It’s projected to hit $1 trillion by May 2026.
• Oracle follows closely, with a $686.53 billion market cap and a 52.87% three-year growth rate. It could reach $1 trillion by early 2027.
• Walmart, despite a recent dip from $827.81 billion to $767 billion, remains on track with a 29.73% growth rate, potentially hitting $1 trillion in under a year.
• Eli Lilly has stumbled, with its market cap falling to $656.17 billion, making its $1 trillion goal less certain.
• Palantir and Netflix are dark horses, with year-over-year gains of 84.78% and 81.69%, respectively. Palantir’s recent acceleration could see it reach $1 trillion in just 19 months.

The race to $1 trillion is interesting.

As Paul Hoffman from BestBrokers notes, “The path to $1 trillion market capitalisation is increasingly shaped by a combination of scale, growth trajectory, and strategic positioning rather than by size alone. 

Companies with steady long-term growth can maintain their lead, but those demonstrating rapid short-term acceleration or executing transformative initiatives may leapfrog projections.

Market volatility and sector-specific catalysts further complicate timelines, meaning that the race to join the $1 trillion club is dynamic and multifaceted, with momentum, strategy, and adaptability playing roles as critical as raw financial performance,” he concluded.

The $4 trillion question

While Visa and Mastercard chase $1 trillion, the BestBrokers report also considered which trillion-dollar companies might hit $4 trillion next. 

NVIDIA and Microsoft are the frontrunners, but the analysis suggests market dynamics and sector-specific catalysts will play a role. For payment companies, reaching $4 trillion is a distant goal, but their current trajectory underscores their importance in the global economy.

Ultimately, the $1 trillion and $4 trillion are not mere vanity metrics but signals of where the market is headed. Visa and Mastercard’s growth reflects the increasing digitisation of payments. 

Mastercard’s partnerships and faster growth make it a compelling pick for those betting on innovation, while Visa’s scale and stability offer a safer bet for long-term growth.